When Boris Johnson said on Friday he was leaving parliament “for now”, rarely in two words has there been such a political threat.
Johnson is leaving Parliament in the face of Trump’s anger, but he is not leaving. Viewed from Downing Street, Johnson is now a dangerous maverick, intent on doing whatever he can to bring down Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
that’s personal. The cynicism and the Whitehall machine stopped Johnson from honoring several ex-premier retainers, including a proposed knighthood for his father, Stanley.
Johnson also blamed Sunak for his downfall, arguing that his former chancellor blocked him from spending and cutting taxes as he struggled to stay in No. 10 last year.
Sunak’s resignation as Chancellor hastened Johnson’s political decline. “Spicy” is how a cabinet minister described Johnson’s move on Friday night.
Some Tory MPs told the Financial Times on Friday night that Johnson was “finished”, that he is a busted flush who jumped in before being pushed by a parliamentary committee probing the “Partygate” scandal.
A former Tory cabinet minister said, “Good riddance”. Another former minister said: “The whole thing, including his honors list, is disgusting.”
But Johnson could still cause serious trouble. The fact that he and his political partner Nadine Dorries are both stepping down as MPs with immediate effect is the first threat to the prime minister.
The last thing Sunak needs is two parliamentary by-elections, both of which will be in Labor’s eyes. Both the competitions are expected to be held before the summer break.
Dorries’ Mid Bedfordshire seat would have been a rock-solid Tory seat in normal times with a majority of 24,664 at the 2019 election, but Labor would be confident of a reversal in these circumstances.
Johnson’s Uxbridge seat in west London is set to fall to Labour. Johnson’s majority of 7,210 in 2019 will be hard to defend in the next general election.
There was already talk of Johnson doing a “chicken run” from his seat ahead of next year’s election – now the speculation is running at a fever pitch in Tory circles.
The theory is that the Tories lose the by-elections in both Uxbridge and Mid Bed, but the Tories’ old constituency will be looking for a big-hitter to win it back from Labor in the general election.
Forward Boris Johnson? A senior Tory official said, “The idea of Boris going to Nadine’s seat is exactly what people are talking about – 100 per cent.”
Instead of facing the infamy of being forced out of his seat as a result of the Partygate scandal, Johnson claimed he was the victim of a rigged parliamentary process, echoing a strategy deployed in the US by Donald Trump.
If he is resurrected as MP for Mid Bed at the next election, Johnson will follow in the footsteps of his hero Winston Churchill, who regularly swapped parliamentary seats.
Another option being discussed by Tory MPs would be for Johnson to be selected as a candidate in his old safe Tory seat of Henley. He will not make Sunak’s life easy under any circumstances.
If the Tories lose the next election and Sunak resigns as party leader, Johnson will be in a position to emulate Churchill in 1945 and seek to lead the Tories in opposition and return them to power.
It may sound fanciful, but so has Johnson’s career. Tory MPs never learned to bet against a politician with mass appeal to the party’s grassroots.
Some Tory MPs believe this is the moment to write Johnson’s political obituary. His decision to leave Parliament immediately was an opportunity to attack Sunak and leave open the possibility of his return.
Many Tory MPs are weary of the drama, which they believe is helping to undermine whatever chance Sunak had of uniting the party ahead of next year’s elections.
Johnson, a former journalist and former mayor of London, was the driving force behind Brexit and won an 80-seat majority as Tory leader in 2019.
His time in office coincided with the Covid crisis. The lockdown-breaking culture engulfed him and hastened his departure as prime minister last autumn.
Johnson has cut a lonely figure in Westminster recently and was one of only 22 Tory MPs who voted against Sunak’s plan to rewrite post-Brexit business rules for Northern Ireland.
His parliamentary fan club has shrunk in recent months, but rumors rife at Westminster on Friday night that other staunch “Boris-ites” could be leaving too. however, no one has confirmed that this was their intention.
But with Johnson comes chaos. For Sunak, a prime minister seeking to restore order can only mean trouble.
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