SEC, CPI and a ‘strong rebound’: 5 things to know in bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the week “largely” in an uncertain position as key support remains out of reach of the bulls.

BTC/USD closed the week below $26,000 for the first time in three months, following fresh losses in the crypto markets over the weekend.

Both bitcoin and altcoins continue to struggle due to ongoing legal battles in the United States and their impact on sentiment.

Fragile markets will now face multiple volatility triggers, however, with the US macro data release accompanying the next step in the crypto legal debacle.

In what promises to be five days full of surprises, traders will not experience any of the choppiness that characterized crypto markets prior to the US turmoil.

How will be the coming week? Cointelegraph takes a look at the key takeaways when it comes to bitcoin and the broader crypto market price action.

Bitcoin Loses Key Trendline, But Some Remain Bullish

Bitcoin price closed the weekly candle on a bearish note, due to which the crypto as a whole declined in value at the last moment.

The delisting of various altcoins by some trading platforms concerned about the US legal ramifications dragged down prices – and led BTC/USD to its lowest weekly close since mid-March, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and trading view shows.

In doing so, the pair also took a close off the 200-week moving average (MA) as a support.

“A BTC weekly candle closing below the 200-week MA could confirm this as support,” said trader and analyst Rect Capital. warning already.

“In that case, $BTC could relive the rally in the MA next week, potentially turning it into new resistance. Such a turn of technical events could precede additional downside.

Michael van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, held similar concerns about the fate of the total crypto market cap.

May Day May Day

Total market capitalization is trading below the 200-week MA and EMA.

A move back above $1.04T is needed during this week to avoid further declines #crypto, pic.twitter.com/J5lb8G5APU

— Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 12, 2023

With downside targets for traders already extending to $24,000 and below, some took the opportunity to be more optimistic, on both the short and longer time frames.

Dan Crypto Trades sees upside potential thanks to the opening of the CME futures gap due to losses over the weekend.

This gap between $26,150 and $26,500 was “filled” by BTC/USD within the first hours.

Continuing, popular trader TrustedCrypto insisted that in spite of everything, the long-term resistance level for bitcoin will not pose much of a problem in the end. $40,000, he reiterated, was still the target of choice.

“When you have a big correction and people are underwater there is resistance to the upside as moves are sold by the bag holders. When you have capitulated and people are submerged (forced to sell down The pressure to sell no longer appears as we go up because ‘there’s nobody left to sell,'” part of the weekend Twitter commentary Reading,

“If the bag holders dump to the downside then the upside is only selling pressure from short term traders/profit takers and this is not enough to stop a major impulsive move in its tracks over the long term. Expect that upside” The ‘key resistance level’ will melt much faster than most would expect.

Bitcoin runs the gauntlet ahead of “huge” macro week

The coming week offers a rare deluge of potential crypto price triggers from the macroeconomic and geopolitical establishment.

Comprehensive Week:

monday:
– Deadline for Binance and Binance US to respond to SEC’s application for a temporary restraining order

Tuesday:
– Motion for Hearing on Binance US’s Temporary Stay Order
– Hinman’s Document Release (XRP)
– CPI Data Release

Wednesday:
– US rate …

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 12, 2023

In addition to the ongoing impact of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) versus multiple exchanges, the macroeconomic data itself promises volatility.

June 13 will see the May print for consumer price index (CPI) inflation, and unlike last time, markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to hold off on raising interest rates.

This would end an uninterrupted hiking cycle that began in late 2021 – right around the time bitcoin saw its current all-time high.

According to CME Group fedwatch toolAt the time of writing on June 12, the halving probability was 75%.

With loosening economic conditions on the horizon, market commentators are pondering the odds of a risk asset rally, both in crypto and beyond.

The biggest chance for stocks to go up? Inflation has declined sharply due to lower rent and food costs, which allows the Fed to hold off on differential rate hikes in June and eventually lower rates by YE.

Biggest risk? narrow width.
Eight stocks account for 30% of the S&P 500 market cap… pic.twitter.com/WePpRfNzxz

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) June 12, 2023

“Very convinced the money maker this week is a Fed pause/skip that sends $BTC over 30k,” popular trader Traderhc Said twitter followers.

fellow merchant slant couple that the CPI event is “likely to set the mood” for the week’s price action.

In addition to the CPI, meanwhile, the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has the potential to spark market-moving soundbites from the Fed chair, Jerome Powell.

A decision on rates is due on June 14, with a follow-up announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later. Additional macroeconomic data will be released on June 15.

Before that, however, the outcome of the SEC vs Binance and Coinbase saga could already push the price higher.

“Tomorrow is going to be a big day for the markets,” said Philip Swift, co-founder of trading suite DicentTrader. Predicted On 11 June.

“SEC to respond to Coinbase’s request for rulemaking… …and US District Court to hear SEC petition for temporary restraining order on Binance US at 2PM. Buckle up.”

bitcoin fundamentals to the moon

As is often the case with bitcoin, short-term price action is meeting its match in underlying network data that exhibits a completely different trend.

This week, as it does almost every time in 2023, network difficulty and hash rate are aiming to reach new all-time highs.

According to some estimates, the hash rate is higher than ever, while the difficulty will increase by about 2.5% on June 14. This will take it past 53 trillion for the first time.

data from monitoring resource btc dot com Confirming that network fundamentals are indeed in “up only mode” despite BTC price pressure, 2023 saw only three difficulty reductions out of a total of 12 adjustments.

“Bitcoin hashrate will not stop growing. It is insane,” said Michelle Askew, social media associate at Blockware. reacted,

“Mining is ruthless, free-market competition in its purest form.”

As Cointelegraph frequently reports, the concept of a bitcoin spot price, especially following the hash rate, has long been a mantra for industry heavyweights, among them the popular but outspoken BTC advocate, Max Keizer.

Minor exchange flow increased

Swift nevertheless described current difficulty levels as “increasingly challenging” for all but the strongest miners.

#bitcoin Minor Difficulty just made a new all-time high!
An increasingly challenging environment for any underperforming miner.

Difficulty now at 51.2 Terahash.

Free Live Charts: pic.twitter.com/V8QNKyXAPv

— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) June 9, 2023

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode meanwhile tracks the onboarding of miners in real time.

“Despite an uncertain macroeconomic environment as well as increasing regulatory pressure, ASICs continue to come online as the bitcoin hash rate (7DMA) reaches an ATH of 381 EH/s,” the researchers said. commented Hash rate chart.

“This equates to 381 quintillion guesses every second to solve the block puzzle.”

Meanwhile, Glassnode data is showing an inflow of miners to exchanges last week at its highest daily level since 2019.

during the last week, #bitcoin Miners are sending significant amounts of coins to exchanges, with the largest inflow amounting to $70.8M.

This is the third largest inflow on record, -$30.2M less than the peak inflow of $101M recorded during the primary bull market of 2021. pic.twitter.com/w4fNFMcxr4

— Glassnode (@glassnode) June 11, 2023

Following this, James Stratton, research and data analyst at crypto news and insights platform CryptoSlate, have been marked Mining pools as a possible main contributor to poolin flux.

Whales boost BTC exposure during altcoin selloff

Analyzing the impact of the latest crypto market turmoil, research firm Sentiment meanwhile looked at the cause of the bullish run.

Related: One-sided Bitcoin Price Could Cause a Breakout in ETH, XRP, LDO and RNDR

This, it argued in findings published on June 11, is thanks to the buying confidence of whales – bitcoin’s largest-volume investor cohort.

As Cointelegraph previously reported, the largest class of whales has split from the rest of the investor base since May, while others distribute BTC.

With altcoins falling over the weekend, whales took the opportunity to increase rather than reduce BTC exposure.

“As the altcoin frenzy begins, there is a quietly bullish divergence between rising whales and falling bitcoin prices,” Sentiment said. commented,

“With whale holdings rising ~1K $BTC per day while the price falls, there is reason to believe a strong rally could happen.”

At the same time, sentiment in the broader crypto market continues to reject a knee-jerk reaction to the news.

crypto fear and greed index remains in “neutral” territory, having barely moved in recent weeks, hovering around the exact center of its 0-100 scale.

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This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.