Blinken visits Beijing on mission to mend fractured US-China ties

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Beijing on Sunday on a highly anticipated mission to restart US-China ties that broke down in February after an alleged Chinese spy balloon flew over North America.

Blinken will be the first secretary of state to visit China since 2018, a reflection of the strict Chinese lockdown during the pandemic, but also how US-China relations have plummeted to their lowest level in decades.

His visit is designed to build on the meeting President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping held in Bali in November, when they agreed on the need to build a “floor” under the relationship. But the plan was derailed in February when Blinken canceled a trip to China because of the balloon.

Relations have declined in recent years. From China’s military activity around Taiwan to its refusal to condemn Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, the US is worried about everything. Meanwhile, Beijing accuses the US of trying to contain China with export controls on advanced technology and safeguards it has put in place with allies.

The relationship reached its climax in late January when a Chinese balloon appeared over North America and circled across the continent, including sensitive military sites, before being shot down by the US.

There have been signs of improvement in the last one month. The Financial Times reported that CIA Director Bill Burns secretly visited China in May and that same month US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, in Vienna. Biden later said at the G7 in Hiroshima, Japan, that he expected an imminent “thaw” in relations.

A senior US official said that relations are now “at a place where we can move forward with the Bali agenda”.

“That’s about the journey,” said the official, who cautioned that Blinken was “very clear” that progress would be “difficult” to achieve.

“This trip is a reunion, not a tension. It needs to prevent a deterioration in relations and find a basis for stability,” said Georgetown University China expert Ivan Medeiros. “Both countries need and want the meeting to go smoothly. May not happen, but it’s too early to talk about success.”

Daniel Krittenbrink, the top State Department official for East Asia, said Blinken had three goals, including the need for communication channels to ensure competition “does not come into conflict”. He said Blinken would also raise issues of concern while exploring possible areas of cooperation.

Dennis Wilder, the CIA’s former top China expert, said the visit would end a period of “deep bitterness” but would do little to tackle “fundamental mistrust”.

“The Chinese are angered by Secretary Blinken’s postponement of his visit earlier this year and his public warnings to Beijing at the Munich Security Conference (in February) about possible Chinese lethal aid to Russia”.

Blinken will hold two days of meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and other officials. It is not clear whether he will meet Xi, whom he was due to meet in February.

Wilder said any decision by Xi not to meet with Blinken would be a “strong signal” that China was concerned that the US would take further steps to block its advanced technology development and other “de-risking” efforts.

A Chinese scholar said that Blinken’s visit would be considered successful only if he met Xi. He said it would be a “hesitation” if he only met with Qin or Wang because they are not as powerful in China as secretaries of state in the US.

While US officials say enough time has passed since the balloon incident for high-level meetings to resume, it still hangs over the relationship.

The FT previously reported that China was reluctant to let Blinken make the trip, due to concerns that the FBI would release the results of its investigation of the balloon. In a letter citing the FT story, 19 Republican senators this week urged Biden not to succumb to Chinese efforts to “silence America” ​​and to “immediately” release the FBI’s findings.

Raja Krishnamurthy, the top Democrat on the House China Committee, said he had reviewed some material related to the balloons provided by the FBI and the information was “eye-opening”.

“For them (China) to call it a weather balloon. , , Not a good look for him,” he said.

Asked on Saturday whether the visit could help ease tensions, Biden said Xi did not know what the balloon, which China claims was a weather observation vessel, was doing. “It was more embarrassing than intentional,” he said, adding that he hoped to meet with Xi “in the next several months”.

Some analysts said China is seeking a “strategic pause” in tensions so it can address its ailing economy, which is struggling to recover from past tough Covid restrictions. Chinese moves to tighten US export controls and anti-espionage laws and crack down on foreign consultations also hurt investor sentiment in China.

But in a warning to those hoping for a quick thaw, China’s foreign ministry on Friday delivered a tongue-twister to the US, warning Washington against continuing “communications that harm China’s interests”. .

Back in Washington, the Biden administration also faces criticism from Republicans, including Mike Gallagher, the head of the House China Committee, who has described its efforts to deal with Beijing as “zombie engagement.” This week he told CNBC that the effort to provide olive branches to China to prompt engagement was an “invitation to aggression.”

But Krishnamurthy, his Democratic counterpart, said the high-level meetings could help stabilize ties and were needed to clearly communicate to China how its aggressive behavior could “trigger an escalation”.

“Mike may like zombie movies. . . but it’s really important that we have these talks, that we do everything we can to be clear and listen carefully at the same time and then find ways to discourage aggression.” try to find.

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