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Recep Tayyip Erdogan dashed hopes in Sunday’s presidential election, confounding pollsters by holding together the coalition of Turkish voters that swept him to power two decades ago.
His 49.5 percent vote share in the presidential race put Erdoğan in pole position for the May 28 run-off against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of a six-party coalition, who secured 45 percent.
Erdogan, who has dominated 21st-century Turkish politics, has seen his support decline in recent years, hurt by the acute cost of living crisis and the dwindling lira. For example, he won fewer votes in the 2018 presidential election than in 2023.
But Kılıçdaroğlu, who led Turkey’s main opposition party for 13 years, failed to capitalize on that shift in opinion. Instead, Sinan Ogan, a third-party nationalist, won nearly 5 percent of the vote, which helped deny Erdoğan the majority needed for an outright victory.
Erdoğan was able to draw on conservative, nationalist and pious voters in the vast Anatolian heartland to support him in the first round.
In Rize, a conservative Black Sea province where Erdoğan spent parts of his youth, the president received nearly three-quarters of the vote. They also captured nearly 70 percent in Konya, one of the country’s largest provinces, which is home to a large religious community.
To the surprise of some analysts, Erdoğan also won easily in Kahramanmaraş, a province badly hit by February’s earthquake.
The president came under severe criticism for the government’s sometimes faltering response to the disaster. But his pledge to rebuild quickly has sidelined local support. Even in Hatay, where the earthquake destroyed most buildings, Erdoğan took almost half the vote share.
Kılıçdaroğlu fared better in Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey’s two largest cities, with Erdoğan failing to reach the 50 percentage mark in his own regions. Some analysts said that Kılıçdaroğlu’s focus on reform, economy and freedom of expression resonated more in these urban areas.
Konya, which is home to a large population of religious, conservative Muslims, mirrored the cross-currents of the 2023 presidential election for all candidates. Erdogan easily won the most votes in the province of 2.3 million people. But Konya is also one of the provinces where its vote share has fallen the most.
The Financial Times reported in April that many people in Konya felt frustrated by economic issues and wanted change. Yet many also said they do not trust Kılıçdaroğlu, a longtime secular politician and member of a minority Muslim sect, to improve their lives.
Its effect was clearly visible on Sunday. Kılıçdaroğlu fared better than the main opposition candidate in 2018, garnering only 14 percent of the vote. But Ogan, the third-party candidate, unexpectedly took 6 percent in 2023, attracting disaffected voters to Kılıçdaroğlu.
Kılıçdaroğlu swept the predominantly Kurdish southeast, thanks to the support of jailed Kurdish politician Selahtin Demirtas and a decision by the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), whose base is Kurdish, not to support its own candidate. Kilikdaroglu to run.
The run-off vote will be uncharted territory for Turkey, which shifted from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency in 2017.
Analysts say the contest will turn on what happens to Ogan’s share of the vote. Erdogan is seen as having an edge here because, like Ogan, he has nationalist views. Ogan was previously a member of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which is part of the presidential coalition.
Oğan has set a high bar for any candidate to gain his support. For example, he insisted that Erdogan drop his long-standing objection to raising interest rates to fight inflation.
He also said that he would back Kılıçdaroğlu only if he abandoned the pro-Kurdish group HDP, whose support was crucial to the opposition leader in the presidential election.
One risk for Erdogan is Turkey’s economy. Runaway inflation failed to deter voters as pollsters expected, but the country has introduced a range of policies to protect the lira, which is trading at a record low. If these backfire or fail to prevent further losses, it will again bring the economy to the fore.
Another important trend in Turkish elections was the strength of the nationalist vote. The MHP, which has supported Erdogan’s AKP since 2015, received nearly 10 percent, outperforming opinion polls that predicted it would barely cross the 7 percent threshold to enter parliament.
Devlet Bahçeli, the 75-year-old leader of the MHP for the past quarter century, has wielded enormous influence over the AKP by voting for a majority in the legislature. It has steered the government in the right direction, particularly on foreign policy and the Kurdish struggle.
The MHP’s solid performance helped Erdoğan consolidate his grip on parliament, protecting his majority even after the ruling AKP lost some 28 seats.
In contrast, the nationalists aligned with the opposition did not perform as expected. The right-wing Iyi Party, formed by MHP dissidents that made an unsuccessful bid to unseat Bahkeli in 2017, has been a main ally of the CHP since the 2018 general elections. The group led by Meral Aksener polled as high as 19 percent earlier this year, but secured only 9.75 percent in the election.
The left-wing HDP was forced to field its candidates on the Green Left ticket in April to circumvent a possible constitutional court ban over alleged links with Kurdish militants. HDP leaders on Monday blamed the loss of seats from 2018 on the difficulty of campaigning for their new banner in such a short time, made worse by “censorship and isolation imposed by mainstream media”.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan dashed hopes in Sunday’s presidential election, confounding pollsters by holding together the coalition of Turkish voters that swept him to power two decades ago.
His 49.5 percent vote share in the presidential race put Erdoğan in pole position for the May 28 run-off against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of a six-party coalition, who secured 45 percent.
Erdogan, who has dominated 21st-century Turkish politics, has seen his support decline in recent years, hurt by the acute cost of living crisis and the dwindling lira. For example, he won fewer votes in the 2018 presidential election than in 2023.
But Kılıçdaroğlu, who led Turkey’s main opposition party for 13 years, failed to capitalize on that shift in opinion. Instead, Sinan Ogan, a third-party nationalist, won nearly 5 percent of the vote, which helped deny Erdoğan the majority needed for an outright victory.
Erdoğan was able to draw on conservative, nationalist and pious voters in the vast Anatolian heartland to support him in the first round.
In Rize, a conservative Black Sea province where Erdoğan spent parts of his youth, the president received nearly three-quarters of the vote. They also captured nearly 70 percent in Konya, one of the country’s largest provinces, which is home to a large religious community.
To the surprise of some analysts, Erdoğan also won easily in Kahramanmaraş, a province badly hit by February’s earthquake.
The president came under severe criticism for the government’s sometimes faltering response to the disaster. But his pledge to rebuild quickly has sidelined local support. Even in Hatay, where the earthquake destroyed most buildings, Erdoğan took almost half the vote share.
Kılıçdaroğlu fared better in Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey’s two largest cities, with Erdoğan failing to reach the 50 percentage mark in his own regions. Some analysts said that Kılıçdaroğlu’s focus on reform, economy and freedom of expression resonated more in these urban areas.
Konya, which is home to a large population of religious, conservative Muslims, mirrored the cross-currents of the 2023 presidential election for all candidates. Erdogan easily won the most votes in the province of 2.3 million people. But Konya is also one of the provinces where its vote share has fallen the most.
The Financial Times reported in April that many people in Konya felt frustrated by economic issues and wanted change. Yet many also said they do not trust Kılıçdaroğlu, a longtime secular politician and member of a minority Muslim sect, to improve their lives.
Its effect was clearly visible on Sunday. Kılıçdaroğlu fared better than the main opposition candidate in 2018, garnering only 14 percent of the vote. But Ogan, the third-party candidate, unexpectedly took 6 percent in 2023, attracting disaffected voters to Kılıçdaroğlu.
Kılıçdaroğlu swept the predominantly Kurdish southeast, thanks to the support of jailed Kurdish politician Selahtin Demirtas and a decision by the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), whose base is Kurdish, not to support its own candidate. Kilikdaroglu to run.
The run-off vote will be uncharted territory for Turkey, which shifted from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency in 2017.
Analysts say the contest will turn on what happens to Ogan’s share of the vote. Erdogan is seen as having an edge here because, like Ogan, he has nationalist views. Ogan was previously a member of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which is part of the presidential coalition.
Oğan has set a high bar for any candidate to gain his support. For example, he insisted that Erdogan drop his long-standing objection to raising interest rates to fight inflation.
He also said that he would back Kılıçdaroğlu only if he abandoned the pro-Kurdish group HDP, whose support was crucial to the opposition leader in the presidential election.
One risk for Erdogan is Turkey’s economy. Runaway inflation failed to deter voters as pollsters expected, but the country has introduced a range of policies to protect the lira, which is trading at a record low. If these backfire or fail to prevent further losses, it will again bring the economy to the fore.
Another important trend in Turkish elections was the strength of the nationalist vote. The MHP, which has supported Erdogan’s AKP since 2015, received nearly 10 percent, outperforming opinion polls that predicted it would barely cross the 7 percent threshold to enter parliament.
Devlet Bahçeli, the 75-year-old leader of the MHP for the past quarter century, has wielded enormous influence over the AKP by voting for a majority in the legislature. It has steered the government in the right direction, particularly on foreign policy and the Kurdish struggle.
The MHP’s solid performance helped Erdoğan consolidate his grip on parliament, protecting his majority even after the ruling AKP lost some 28 seats.
In contrast, the nationalists aligned with the opposition did not perform as expected. The right-wing Iyi Party, formed by MHP dissidents that made an unsuccessful bid to unseat Bahkeli in 2017, has been a main ally of the CHP since the 2018 general elections. The group led by Meral Aksener polled as high as 19 percent earlier this year, but secured only 9.75 percent in the election.
The left-wing HDP was forced to field its candidates on the Green Left ticket in April to circumvent a possible constitutional court ban over alleged links with Kurdish militants. HDP leaders on Monday blamed the loss of seats from 2018 on the difficulty of campaigning for their new banner in such a short time, made worse by “censorship and isolation imposed by mainstream media”.
