‘Traitors must be shot’: Vladimir Putin’s truce with Wagner is in jeopardy

Armed Wagner fighters walk around eating shawarmas in Voronezh, southern Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin resumes rhetoric against the Defense Ministry – while treason charges against Sardar are resumed.

Two days after the Kremlin agreed to end Wagner’s armed insurgency, a cease-fire is on the brink, and questions are growing in Russia about whether the deal will last.

The Kremlin confiscated billions of rubles in cash and gold bars from Prigozhin, squeezing Wagner’s finances. But some fervent loyalists of President Vladimir Putin are proposing an even more inexcusable solution.

“I am absolutely convinced that in times of war, traitors should be shot,” Andrei Gurlyov, a prominent pro-war lawmaker, said on state television on Sunday. “Whatever fairy tales they tell you, the only way out for Prigozhin is to shoot him in the head.”

The first sign of the deal’s fragility came on Monday, when state newspapers citing sources said that – contrary to promises by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov – Prigozhin was still under investigation for organizing the uprising.

The leak suggested that Russia wanted to keep the pressure on Prigozhin, who reappeared a few hours later in a voice message claiming that his mutiny was a simple act of self-preservation. The rebellion, he said, was meant to prevent Wagner from ending on 1 July, and contrary to reports, his fighters would not join the regular armed forces.

“The situation has not been resolved as far as I can tell. And the terms Peskov announced are not sustainable terms,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Nor has Wagner’s activity in Russia completely diminished, despite promises that he would return to base camps in Ukraine.

On Sunday evening, local residents in Voronezh saw Wagner fighters shopping at a supermarket, although officials said they had left the city that morning.

As the Wagner fighters walked away, shawarma in hand from a nearby stand, a “young boy had an exuberant, defiant look. As if everything was fine and nothing really happened, and they are all going home, ”said Vladimir, a teacher in Voronezh.

Several Wagner hotlines across Russia contacted by phone on Monday told the Financial Times they were still recruiting new fighters.

One of them said, “Recruitment is going on.” “Nobody has put a stop to recruitment.”

The first big issue is whether Prigozhin – who has yet to confirm his whereabouts – will indeed go into exile in Belarus, as the Kremlin has suggested.

A person who has known Sardar since the early 1990s, when Putin visited a restaurant owned by Prigozhin, said Belarus may have been used to run Wagner’s long-standing mercenary activities in Africa. There was a jumping off point for them.

“Alexander Grigorevich (Lukashenko, President of Belarus) does not need him there under any circumstances. , , And he doesn’t have enough money to keep it there,” the person said. Instead, Prigozhin would “keep going (all the way) to Africa”.

However, the coup attempt raised the question of what influence Prigozhin could maintain over Wagner’s operations from exile. Although nominally independent, Wagner’s mercenary operations in Africa were partially funded and equipped by the Russian government, which the group used as a convenient excuse to deny its official involvement in the conflicts there. did.

Lee said, “It’s a synergistic relationship, because Wagner couldn’t function without that kind of support.” “It is allowed to make money on its own, but it basically has to advance Russian foreign policy. So wouldn’t he mind not being under Putin anymore?”

Wagner’s finances are a key component of his involvement in the Ukraine invasion – so much so that they appear to be a major trigger for the rebellion.

On Saturday, as Wagner’s forces marched towards Moscow, Russian investigators seized Rbs4bn ($47mn) in cash stuffed into cardboard boxes inside a minivan during a raid on a hotel owned by Prigozhin in St Petersburg.

According to local site Fontanka, Prigozhin said the baggage – which also included three false passports, 5kg gold bars, six pistols and five bricks of an unspecified white powder – was only one of three buses full of cash that had been seized. He claimed that it was used. finance Wagner’s operations and pay the widows of fighters, as well as settle “other issues” he did not specify.

“While we were giving America nightmares (through the Troll Farm owned by Prigozhin) while we were operating in Africa, Ukraine and other countries, everybody was fine with cash,” Sardar said on Saturday. Was.”

According to people familiar with the matter, the cash payment was at the heart of Prigozhin’s complaints with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whose order this month to stop Wagner from signing a contract with the military has prompted a rebellion.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a one-time ally of Wagner who has recently abandoned his criticism of Shoigu, said he asked Prigozhin to “abandon his business ambitions and not mix them with matters of state importance”. had urged

Russian MP Gurlyov, a former lieutenant-general, said he himself commanded some of Wagner’s early operations about a decade ago, but he split from the group after a company related to Prigozhin lost a Rbs8.5bn state contract.

Wagner’s complex financial and logistical ties with the security apparatus also raised suspicions that Prigozhin’s conspiracy was deeper.

“It’s only the upper hand. For a place in Putinism without Putin, the inter-elite, inter- The agency battle continues to rage.

The ease with which Wagner marched across Russia with a few thousand men, Luzin said, suggests that Prigozhin’s allies in the security services may have joined the rebellion.

“If the security forces were waiting for orders that never came, what was the Air Force doing there? There are many awkward moments that give the sense that the Secret Services thought they had the situation under control, and they didn’t.”

The future of the Wagner Fighters remains uncertain. The Kremlin pardoned them and said those who did not participate would sign contracts with the military. According to an intelligence assessment shared among EU officials and seen by the FT, the number could be around 20,000 of Wagner’s 25,000-strong force. But on Monday Prigozhin said his people would remain free. “We were marching to show our protest, not to remove the government from power,” he said.

Andrei Kartapolov, a former general and head of the Russian parliament’s defense committee, said Monday he is drafting a bill to formalize Wagner’s position.

“He didn’t offend anyone, he didn’t break anything. “Nobody has the slightest problem with him,” Kartapolov told the Russian newspaper Vedomosti.

However, the rebellion has prompted calls for Wagner to more firmly take control of the state. Even though Putin praised Wagner for his heroism on the battlefield, the group remained technically illegal in Russia, a loophole that gave the Kremlin more room for maneuver.

“This insurrection may have changed that calculation,” Emily Ferris, research fellow at UK defense think-tank Rusie, wrote in a note.

“Those who took Prigozhin’s side would be fired and serious efforts would be made within Russia to eliminate any sentiment that sympathized with Wagner or its ideas about the management of the war, all fueled by increasing domestic repression.” refers to the atmosphere.

Already on Monday, senior lawmakers said Wagner would be banned from recruiting from prisons – thereby depriving him of the good fortune of the convict army that was once one of his key power bases.

Others went even further, such as Gurulyov, who said that Wagner fighters who had not joined the Ministry of Defense should be thrown off the battlefield.

Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute said that under a similar plan, the Ministry of Defense could continue to operate under the same brand while employing Wagner for its own purposes. He said how much of the original Wagner would remain would depend on how many senior commanders were retained.

“Those guys have more combat experience than almost anyone in the Russian army. They fought most of the major battles and they basically know how to attack better than anyone in the Russian army,” Li said. “If those people leave, it will never be the same.”

Additional reporting by Anastasia Stognei in Riga

Armed Wagner fighters walk around eating shawarmas in Voronezh, southern Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin resumes rhetoric against the Defense Ministry – while treason charges against Sardar are resumed.

Two days after the Kremlin agreed to end Wagner’s armed insurgency, a cease-fire is on the brink, and questions are growing in Russia about whether the deal will last.

The Kremlin confiscated billions of rubles in cash and gold bars from Prigozhin, squeezing Wagner’s finances. But some fervent loyalists of President Vladimir Putin are proposing an even more inexcusable solution.

“I am absolutely convinced that in times of war, traitors should be shot,” Andrei Gurlyov, a prominent pro-war lawmaker, said on state television on Sunday. “Whatever fairy tales they tell you, the only way out for Prigozhin is to shoot him in the head.”

The first sign of the deal’s fragility came on Monday, when state newspapers citing sources said that – contrary to promises by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov – Prigozhin was still under investigation for organizing the uprising.

The leak suggested that Russia wanted to keep the pressure on Prigozhin, who reappeared a few hours later in a voice message claiming that his mutiny was a simple act of self-preservation. The rebellion, he said, was meant to prevent Wagner from ending on 1 July, and contrary to reports, his fighters would not join the regular armed forces.

“The situation has not been resolved as far as I can tell. And the terms Peskov announced are not sustainable terms,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Nor has Wagner’s activity in Russia completely diminished, despite promises that he would return to base camps in Ukraine.

On Sunday evening, local residents in Voronezh saw Wagner fighters shopping at a supermarket, although officials said they had left the city that morning.

As the Wagner fighters walked away, shawarma in hand from a nearby stand, a “young boy had an exuberant, defiant look. As if everything was fine and nothing really happened, and they are all going home, ”said Vladimir, a teacher in Voronezh.

Several Wagner hotlines across Russia contacted by phone on Monday told the Financial Times they were still recruiting new fighters.

One of them said, “Recruitment is going on.” “Nobody has put a stop to recruitment.”

The first big issue is whether Prigozhin – who has yet to confirm his whereabouts – will indeed go into exile in Belarus, as the Kremlin has suggested.

A person who has known Sardar since the early 1990s, when Putin visited a restaurant owned by Prigozhin, said Belarus may have been used to run Wagner’s long-standing mercenary activities in Africa. There was a jumping off point for them.

“Alexander Grigorevich (Lukashenko, President of Belarus) does not need him there under any circumstances. , , And he doesn’t have enough money to keep it there,” the person said. Instead, Prigozhin would “keep going (all the way) to Africa”.

However, the coup attempt raised the question of what influence Prigozhin could maintain over Wagner’s operations from exile. Although nominally independent, Wagner’s mercenary operations in Africa were partially funded and equipped by the Russian government, which the group used as a convenient excuse to deny its official involvement in the conflicts there. did.

Lee said, “It’s a synergistic relationship, because Wagner couldn’t function without that kind of support.” “It is allowed to make money on its own, but it basically has to advance Russian foreign policy. So wouldn’t he mind not being under Putin anymore?”

Wagner’s finances are a key component of his involvement in the Ukraine invasion – so much so that they appear to be a major trigger for the rebellion.

On Saturday, as Wagner’s forces marched towards Moscow, Russian investigators seized Rbs4bn ($47mn) in cash stuffed into cardboard boxes inside a minivan during a raid on a hotel owned by Prigozhin in St Petersburg.

According to local site Fontanka, Prigozhin said the baggage – which also included three false passports, 5kg gold bars, six pistols and five bricks of an unspecified white powder – was only one of three buses full of cash that had been seized. He claimed that it was used. finance Wagner’s operations and pay the widows of fighters, as well as settle “other issues” he did not specify.

“While we were giving America nightmares (through the Troll Farm owned by Prigozhin) while we were operating in Africa, Ukraine and other countries, everybody was fine with cash,” Sardar said on Saturday. Was.”

According to people familiar with the matter, the cash payment was at the heart of Prigozhin’s complaints with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whose order this month to stop Wagner from signing a contract with the military has prompted a rebellion.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a one-time ally of Wagner who has recently abandoned his criticism of Shoigu, said he asked Prigozhin to “abandon his business ambitions and not mix them with matters of state importance”. had urged

Russian MP Gurlyov, a former lieutenant-general, said he himself commanded some of Wagner’s early operations about a decade ago, but he split from the group after a company related to Prigozhin lost a Rbs8.5bn state contract.

Wagner’s complex financial and logistical ties with the security apparatus also raised suspicions that Prigozhin’s conspiracy was deeper.

“It’s only the upper hand. For a place in Putinism without Putin, the inter-elite, inter- The agency battle continues to rage.

The ease with which Wagner marched across Russia with a few thousand men, Luzin said, suggests that Prigozhin’s allies in the security services may have joined the rebellion.

“If the security forces were waiting for orders that never came, what was the Air Force doing there? There are many awkward moments that give the sense that the Secret Services thought they had the situation under control, and they didn’t.”

The future of the Wagner Fighters remains uncertain. The Kremlin pardoned them and said those who did not participate would sign contracts with the military. According to an intelligence assessment shared among EU officials and seen by the FT, the number could be around 20,000 of Wagner’s 25,000-strong force. But on Monday Prigozhin said his people would remain free. “We were marching to show our protest, not to remove the government from power,” he said.

Andrei Kartapolov, a former general and head of the Russian parliament’s defense committee, said Monday he is drafting a bill to formalize Wagner’s position.

“He didn’t offend anyone, he didn’t break anything. “Nobody has the slightest problem with him,” Kartapolov told the Russian newspaper Vedomosti.

However, the rebellion has prompted calls for Wagner to more firmly take control of the state. Even though Putin praised Wagner for his heroism on the battlefield, the group remained technically illegal in Russia, a loophole that gave the Kremlin more room for maneuver.

“This insurrection may have changed that calculation,” Emily Ferris, research fellow at UK defense think-tank Rusie, wrote in a note.

“Those who took Prigozhin’s side would be fired and serious efforts would be made within Russia to eliminate any sentiment that sympathized with Wagner or its ideas about the management of the war, all fueled by increasing domestic repression.” refers to the atmosphere.

Already on Monday, senior lawmakers said Wagner would be banned from recruiting from prisons – thereby depriving him of the good fortune of the convict army that was once one of his key power bases.

Others went even further, such as Gurulyov, who said that Wagner fighters who had not joined the Ministry of Defense should be thrown off the battlefield.

Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute said that under a similar plan, the Ministry of Defense could continue to operate under the same brand while employing Wagner for its own purposes. He said how much of the original Wagner would remain would depend on how many senior commanders were retained.

“Those guys have more combat experience than almost anyone in the Russian army. They fought most of the major battles and they basically know how to attack better than anyone in the Russian army,” Li said. “If those people leave, it will never be the same.”

Additional reporting by Anastasia Stognei in Riga