kamala harris question

Here’s a counterfactual: If Gina Raimondo were US Vice President instead of Commerce Secretary, would Democrats accept Joe Biden’s decision to run again? My guess is almost certainly not. Since it is Kamala Harris, not the highly regarded Raimondo, who is next in line, almost no Democrats are pressing Biden to secede. Fair or not, few people think Harris can beat Donald Trump. As a result, Democrats and most of the “mainstream” media have been working an invisible memo telling them to avoid talking about Biden’s age.

This cannot last. Forget Republicans and Independents: Majority democratic voter Biden, who will turn 81 in November, seems unlikely to run for a second term. That means the vice president will be an unusually big factor next year. Those who say that the popularity of a running mate never changes American election results have two responses. First, history is a poor guide. It has told us twice that Trump cannot be the Republican nominee. It sure looks like getting rejected twice.

The other has two words: Sarah Palin. I challenge any American political scientist to put her hand on her heart and say that Palin’s presence on the ticket of the aging John McCain didn’t hurt her chances against Barack Obama in 2008 – especially given the collapse of Lehman Brothers. After. Either way, Republicans like Nikki Haley, one of next year’s presidential contenders, have made it clear that Harris will be a target. Haley recently said, “If you vote for Joe Biden you are really counting on a President Harris.”

Blaming the office of the vice president or the Oval Office for Harris’s tarnished profile is an exercise in futility. It’s hard to believe that Biden was trying to raise Harris’ profile when he asked her to tackle the root causes of illegal immigration. No foreigner can turn the “Northern Triangle” of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador into safe havens for its poor. While those countries may see long-term benefits from the investments Harris is making, illegal US border crossings reached record levels last year. over 2mn People. Now that the US has loosened its pandemic border rules, more migrants are likely to arrive. On this most populist of touchstones, Republicans have a ready-made scapegoat in Harris.

But Harris can hardly pin all the blame on Biden’s men. His public appearances have been the best. Staff turnover has been unusually high even by the backwater standards of the vice president’s office, although the exit rate has slowed over the past year. Harris also conducted his recent nine-day tour of Africa without incident. Since last year’s Supreme Court struck down abortion rights in Roe v. Wade, she has found some of the passion she didn’t have in 2019 when she exited the primaries before they even started.

Even though no such semblance is visible, Biden has to make a virtue out of necessity. He can’t drop Harris – the result of dropping America’s first female vice president could spark a Democratic civil war. So Biden should elevate him. It should be simpler than conventional wisdom suggests. It is meant to give Harris a higher profile to speak out on issues that voters care about, such as women’s right to choose, child care, parental leave and education. It also makes sense for Harris to distance the White House from some of the more exotic forms of left-wing identitarianism. Whether the opponent is Trump or Ron DeSantis, Republicans are betting big on their “walk on wok” — and Harris is seen awash.

But concerns about Harris’ shortcomings are overstated. To be sure, she dropped out of the last race. Biden did the same in 1988 and 2008. Furthermore, most vice presidents have been kept out of the loop of the White House. One of America’s best presidents of the 20th century, Harry Truman, was not even told that America had an atomic bomb until after he was sworn in. The aloof Lyndon Baines Johnson was routinely mocked by John Kennedy’s aides. The job is almost designed to make the people living in it look useless. It says little about how he will handle the presidency.

Biden has compelling reasons to cede the major to Harris as soon as possible. He lacks the energy for a modern campaign. Last time, he was protected by Covid and did it mostly on Zoom. Harris has to make up for some of Biden’s looseness in 2024’s more typical one-on-one environment. The more exposure he is given now, the better. Harris needs to be ready to be president. Biden chose him in 2020. Now they should invest in them.

edward.luce@ft.com