NATO should support Ukraine with a clear road map to membership

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The writer is a member of the House of Lords, chairman of Rothschild & Co’s geopolitical advisory and former UK National Security Adviser.

Last week’s NATO summit had three tasks: strengthen support for Ukraine; strengthening the military capabilities of the alliance; and deepening ties with Pacific allies to address the common challenge of China. Did it live up to the expectations?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has, paradoxically, strengthened NATO. The allies have recommended investing at least 2 per cent of GDP on defence. Joining the alliance of Finland and Sweden, two important military powers (and EU members), would strengthen NATO’s northern axis, and the – still fragile – rapprochement with Turkish President Erdoğan would do the same for its southern flank. Will do

When I was National Security Advisor, I was often asked to name the most serious threat. I always procrastinated. To make the game analogy, we have to play what is in front of us.

Today’s danger is Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Yesterday terrorism and smuggling were emerging from the failure of the state. Tomorrow’s inevitable challenge is China, especially China Climate change Opens up Arctic waters and brings NATO and China closer in the High North. what next? State failure in post-Putin Russia? Uncontrolled artificial intelligence? Resource war in Africa? These and many more are possible, as are the unknowns. The Western alliance, with NATO at its center, must be prepared for anything.

Alliance members must invest in their defense industries to ramp up production of equipment and armaments in times of crisis, and ensure that increased defense spending is invested in real capabilities, not flashy prestige or nostalgia programs In.

NATO’s nuclear doctrine also needs a refresh: We must signal to Russia that any use of nuclear weapons anywhere, not just in NATO territory, can be met with force. Nuclear deterrence is appalling, but even more appalling is an isolated, desperate despot who misunderstands our resolve and is pushing buttons.

A second important lesson as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine relates to NATO involvement beyond the Euro-Atlantic. Climate change, the technological revolution, aging populations, migration, the resurgence of the petrodollar, and the green transition and competition for raw materials critical to the modern economy are already having geopolitical – as well as socio-economic – impacts.

Much of the world is rediscovering the appeal of non-alignment. So we must reinvest in our relations with countries like Brazil, India, South Africa and the Gulf. Although many countries fear aggressive neighbors and some support Putin’s aggression, they also complain of Western arrogance and double standards. Old friends we have ignored welcome Chinese investment and its boundless appetite for its raw materials.

More private Western investment in the Global South can be fostered if political investment in a sustained and stable relationship is promoted. And Washington and Beijing’s efforts to stabilize their ties, if still tentative, will be more resilient if based on a common approach with America’s European and Pacific allies. The Vilnius meeting was a useful step in that endeavour.

But the summit on Ukraine remained unfinished. Given the G7’s pledge of support, diplomats will no doubt already be arguing that better management of Ukrainian expectations in the face of US and German caution on the roadmap to NATO membership has positioned the summit as a step forward rather than a setback. can be seen in ,

Rather than realizing that the screw had been turned, Putin, who was grappling with the humiliation of the Wagner rebellion, may have seen a glimmer of opportunity in the scratch about NATO differences and Ukrainian ingratitude over it. Nor will President Biden’s guarantee of strategic fortitude after the Afghanistan debacle worry him much. If his forces can contain and hold off the Ukrainian counteroffensive, he will hopefully pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to talk as well as fight.

Putin will already be convinced by some US Republicans’ plans to restrict support for Ukraine and, presumably, hopes that the 2024 election will produce a president willing to give ground for peace. However, President Zelensky will not leave Ukrainian territory after such a fierce struggle for national existence. And Putin’s disregard for the Minsk agreements between Russia and Ukraine, signed in September 2014, shows that he would treat any ceasefire agreement as a strategic break to regroup.

Therefore NATO should not rest after the Vilnius summit. Instead, in his final year as Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg must ensure three commitments to Ukraine: now more weapons to support this year’s counteroffensive; long-term support for developing advanced capabilities to deter and thereby deter future Russian aggression; And he guarantees a road map for NATO membership.

As governments around the world grapple with climate change, the technological revolution, rising populations, migration and globalisation, how the Western alliance meets this challenge will determine how others position themselves in this age of strategic competition. align and thus who writes the history of the 21st century. This is a crucial phase.

This article is part of a special report on national security to be published on 19 July