Turkey’s Erdoğan gains momentum as he enters the fight of his political career

If Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was troubled by the knife-edge nature of Turkey’s decisive election, with early results indicating the president would be forced to run for the first time, he made it clear in an address to fervent supporters earlier in the day. Did not show Monday morning hours.

Instead, as he took to the balcony of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) headquarters in Ankara, singing to a flag-waving crowd and delivering a fiery speech, he insisted he was in the lead And seal the victory – whether it means the presidential race is going to a second round or not.

His energy and confidence underscored the task facing an opposition brimming with optimism in Sunday’s election. While it struck a blow at its nemesis, it appears some distance from delivering a knockout punch against a relentless campaigner who has dominated Turkish politics for two decades.

Preventing the incumbent from winning outright would be a first for the opposition, which is led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the Republican People’s Party, which has never won a national election against Erdoğan. But everything points to the momentum being in Erdogan’s favor. With 99 percent of ballot boxes counted, Kılıçdaroğlu has 49.4 percent of the vote to 45 percent, according to state media.

The challenge facing Kılıçdaroğlu’s six-party opposition coalition is underscored by the fact that Erdoğan’s ruling AKP, along with its ultranationalist partner, is on track to win a majority in parliament. Erdoğan is expected to have a stronger hand ahead of any run-off – when Turkey is grappling with a cost-of-living crisis, many blame a president who is populist and divisive in equal measure.

For some, the results will be worrying echoes of 2018, when an opposition committed to its mission to remove Erdoğan from power confidently hoped the economic crisis would help bring down the president, only to come in a distant second on election day for coming.

The fight will enter uncharted territory if the race to secure the country’s all-powerful executive presidency moves to a second round, which is set for May 28. In 2002 the power is clearly ready for battle.

Shortly after the charismatic strongman’s late-night balcony appearance, Kılıçdaroğlu, a soft-spoken retired bureaucrat, struck a defiant tone in a brief statement, saying he too was confident of winning the run-off. But the setting was far more restrained in an auditorium filled with empty seats. And he and his allies know they are competing on an uneven playing field, with government control of most media and Erdoğan unabashedly willing to deploy state resources to support his cause.

The surprise kingmaker could be Sinan Oan, the third presidential candidate, who unexpectedly garnered nearly 5 percent of the vote. Ogan is a former member of the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Movement party, AKP’s partner in parliament. Kılıçdaroğlu’s efforts to woo his supporters may be complicated by Oğan’s hatred of the Kurdish-dominated People’s Democratic Party, which is supporting his bid for the presidency.

Erdoğan and his supporters will continue to insist despite criticism of his economic management that he is the only one with experience in fixing the ailing economy and rebuilding after February’s devastating earthquake. The shrewd and fiery 69-year-old, who has served three terms as prime minister and is seeking a third term as president, is likely to play on people’s fears of instability in a politically polarized nation.

During the campaign, his speeches were filled with diatribes against Kılıçdaroğlu, whom he accused of being “drunk”, pro-LBGT and preparing to surrender to the IMF in alliance with “terrorists”. Even more can be expected.

Erdoğan will also seek to take advantage of voters’ aversion to the fractious coalitions that governed in the decade before the AKP came to power. While the opposition has put up its most united front in its years-long bid to topple him, the coalition led by Kılıçdaroğlu is made up of disparate parts of the political spectrum.

Kılıçdaroğlu will hammer the cost of living crisis, hoping it will prove to be Erdogan’s sore heel with inflation above 40 percent and the lira near record lows. But his challenge will be to assure voters that the president no longer represents their interests and that his coalition is stable and can deliver results.

Even in opposition circles, there have been doubts about whether 74-year-old Kılıçdaroğlu has the charisma to take on Turkey’s political mentor and whether the coalition would have been wiser to select a younger candidate, especially one of Istanbul’s popular Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Depending on the final results, those doubts could re-emerge, especially if the opposition’s confidence is shaken.

There is no doubt that Erdogan is in the fight of his political life. But once again he is proving to his critics that he should never be dismissed.

andrew.england@ft.com