This Week In Bitcoin & Crypto: Key Dates That Will Affect Prices

After eight consecutive red daily candlesticks, bitcoin price ended yesterday (Sunday) with a green daily candlestick. Bitcoin and the crypto market are entering a week that, while not a macro blockbuster week, could still be trend-setting for the crypto market. Friday in particular may once again be the most important day of the week.

Last week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced off a historically important support level, putting significant pressure on bitcoin and the crypto markets. Weaker than expected consumer expectations, weak US consumer confidence and stable core inflation boosted the DXY, which will be a major focus this week.

Key Dates for Bitcoin and Crypto This Week

On Tuesday the 16th at 8:30 a.m. EST, the U.S. Census Bureau will release final U.S. retail sales figures for the month of April. The final figure for March was -0.6%, well below the forecast of -0.4%. For April, consumer sentiment is forecast to decline by 0.7%.

Strong consumer spending is seen as supportive for DXY and could accelerate the rally. On the other hand, if the reading is lower than forecast, it would indicate that consumers are reluctant to spend. Accordingly, the DXY is expected to consolidate again, providing a tailwind for bitcoin and crypto prices.

On Wednesday the 17th at 8:30am EST, the Census Bureau will release preliminary data on US building permits for April. Most recently, the US stock market and subsequently the bitcoin price reacted positively to better-than-expected housing data.

At 1.430 million, the number of new housing permits issued in April was slightly higher than forecasts. If the expectation of 1.430 million permits issued is exceeded again, this could be another catalyst for the market.

A day later, on Thursday the 18th (8:30 AM EST), the Philadelphia Fed will release its latest Manufacturing Index. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is considered a leading indicator for the all-important ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index and therefore can be important to the broader financial markets.

If the index falls below the forecast of -19.0 for the fourth consecutive month, the bearish reaction in the financial market is likely to repeat itself like last month. On the other hand, an above forecast reading would be bullish as it would reduce the likelihood of a recession in the near future.

Friday the 19th is the most important day of the week, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will step in front of the cameras at 5:00 PM EST and may provide new information on the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy stance in the coming months. There is a possibility of increasing volatility in the market. Notably, 14 Fed members are scheduled to speak this week, each with a different approach.

You can’t make it, here are Fed members speaking this week:

1. Bastick – Monday
2. Kashkari – Monday
3. Barkin – Monday
4. Cook – Monday
5. Thursday – Tuesday
6. Bastick – Tuesday
7. Barr – Tuesday
8. Logan – Tuesday
9. Jefferson – Thursday
10. Barr – Thursday
11. Logan -…

– The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 14, 2023

DXY Down, BTC Up?

As far as DXY is concerned, a decision may soon be imminent. As technical analyst Gert van Lagen points out, DXY may be due for the head-and-shoulders reversal seen in 2020/2021 – but this time it is indicating a downtrend rather than an uptrend.

#DXY Head and shoulders inversion:

’20-’21:
1. H&S down under red downtrend
2. Right shoulder through downtrend, above SMA 200
3. Pullback (yellow circle)

’22 – ’23:
1. H&S is above green uptrend
2. Right shoulder through uptrend, below SMA 200
3. Pullback (yellow circle) pic.twitter.com/KDkStTMLh3

— Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen) 12 May 2023

As NewsBTC chief analyst Tony Spilotro recently shared on Twitter, the late 2020 DXY reversal marked the beginning of a bitcoin bull run. Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen.

This looks like a replay of 2020 minus the pandemic

DXY Vs #bitcoin Compare pic.twitter.com/imSzY8aVrW

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) May 8, 2023

At press time, the bitcoin price reached $27,500, while the DXY showed a slight correction from 102.752 to 102.559.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com