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Bitcoin is stuck in a narrow range, making it difficult to predict the direction of the next potential breakout. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which typically moves in inverse correlation to Bitcoin (BTC), fell below 100, but it has failed to carry Bitcoin higher. This shows that bitcoin is charting its own course in the near future.
Therefore, this week the earnings season of major companies may affect the equity markets in the United States, but bitcoin may not be affected as much. It is becoming increasingly difficult to pinpoint the event or news flow that will cause the bitcoin price to break out of range.
The uncertainty about bitcoin’s next directional move hasn’t deterred whales. SignalQuant, a contributing analyst at CryptoQuant, highlighted that unspent transaction output, an on-chain indicator, is increasing in 2023, similar to the increase seen in 2019. If the indicator continues to rise, it would suggest that bitcoin has room to run higher and lower was a long-term low made in late 2022.
Can DXY improve? Will this limit the upside of bitcoin and major altcoins? Let’s analyze the chart to find out.
S&P 500 Index Price Analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is in a strong bullish position. The price has even reached the resistance at 4,513, which could act as a minor hurdle. But if the bulls don’t give up much ground from the current levels, it would suggest that traders expect the rally to continue.
The negative divergence developing on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been negated, indicating that the bulls remain in control. If buyers sustain the price above 4,513, the index could resume its uptrend and move towards 4,650. This level can again act as a strong barrier.
On the downside, the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 4,420 is an important support to watch. If this support gives way, it will signal that the bulls may book profits. This could lead to a drop in the price towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,293.
us dollar index price analysis
The US Dollar Index fell below the moving average on July 7 and continued to decline. Bears pushed the price below the important support level of 100.82 on July 12, completing a bearish descending triangle pattern.
The sharp decline of the past few days has sent the RSI into the oversold region, indicating that a minor correction is possible. If the price gains from the current levels, the index may retest the breakdown level of 100.82.
This remains a major level to watch. If the price breaks below this level, it will suggest that the bears have turned previous support into resistance. This could start a downtrend, reaching 97 and then a drop towards the pattern target of 93.64.
If the bulls want to stop the decline, they will have to move bullish and keep the price above 100.82.
bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin bulls have defended the 20-day EMA ($30,173) for the past three days, but they have failed to initiate a strong rally from it, a downside sign. This suggests lack of aggressive demand at current levels.
The 20-day EMA has started to flatten out, and the RSI is just above the median, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This could keep the pair in a range of $29,500 and $31,500 for some time.
Buyers need to propel the price above $32,400 to signal the start of the next phase of the uptrend. After this the BTC/USDT pair could rise to $40,000. Instead, if the price breaks below $29,500, the pair is likely to decline to the 50-day SMA ($28,671).
ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) is attempting to hold above the 20-day EMA ($1,897), which suggests that lower levels are attracting buyers.
The bulls will try to push the price towards the psychological resistance of $2,000. This remains a key level to watch as a break and close above it would pave the way for a potential rally to the $2,141 to $2,200 area.
The key support to watch on the downside is the 50-day SMA ($1,853). If this level breaks, it would suggest that the ETH/USDT pair could remain within a larger range between $1,626 and $2,000 for some more time.
xrp price analysis
XRP (XRP) is finding support in the area between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.69 and the 61.8% retracement level of $0.64.
The bulls will try to resume the upward move, but they may face stiff resistance at $0.83 and then $0.93. If the price breaks below this area, the XRP/USDT pair could remain stuck in a range for a few more days.
Another possibility is that the price will decline from the current levels and sink below $0.64. If this happens, it will signal a quick exit from the position among the bulls. This may cause the pair to sink to the 20-day EMA ($0.58).
bnb price analysis
BNB (BNB) broke below the 50-day SMA ($253) and re-entered the symmetrical triangle pattern formed on July 14. This suggests that the bears are fiercely defending the overhead resistance at $265.
The 20-day EMA ($244) has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The BNB/USDT pair may oscillate inside the triangle for a few more days.
The price needs to extend and sustain above the triangle for the buyers to gain momentum. The momentum could increase once the bulls take the price above the $265 overhead resistance. Alternatively, a break below the triangle would indicate that the bears are back in the driver’s seat. The pair could resume its declining trend below $220.
Solana Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) formed an inside-day candlestick pattern on July 15 and 16, suggesting short-term uncertainty regarding the next directional move.
Generally, a bullish breakout is followed by a range constriction. If buyers hold the price above $29.12, the SOL/USDT pair can rally higher to $32.13. A rally above this level could open the doors for further gains towards $38.
Conversely, if the price declines and breaks below $26, it would suggest that the gains are tilted in favor of the bears. The pair may decline first to $24 and then to the 20-day EMA ($22.53).
Connected: Bitcoin’s ‘Full Breakout’ Has Not Happened Yet as BTC Price Hits $30,000 in a Month
cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) pulled back near the breakout level of $0.30. Usually, such a deep correction delays the start of the next phase of the upward move.
However, the moving averages are about to complete a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that the bulls have a slight upside advantage. If the price rises from the current levels, the buyers will again attempt to take the ADA/USDT pair to the overhead resistance of $0.38.
It is not likely to be an easy road for the bulls. The bears will try to stop the recovery at $0.34 and then at $0.36. On the downside, a break and close below $0.30 could tilt the gains in favor of the bears.
dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) is witnessing a tough fight between the bulls and the bears near the overhead resistance of $0.07.
The 20-day EMA ($0.07) has started an uptrend and the RSI is in the positive zone. This shows that the bulls have a slight advantage. The bulls will attempt to propel the price towards $0.08, where the bears can again set up a strong defense.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it would suggest that the bears will continue to sell on rallies. This may keep the DOGE/USDT pair stuck in the range of $0.06 to $0.07 for some more time.
polygon value analysis
Typically, price turns lower and retests a breakout from a pattern, and Polygon (MATIC) is doing just that. The price may drop to $0.72.
If the price recovers strongly above $0.72, it will suggest buying at lower levels. Then the bulls will try to push the price above the overhead resistance at $0.90. If they do so, the MATIC/USDT pair could start the next phase of the upward move. The first stop could be the psychological resistance of $1 followed by $1.20.
This positive outlook will be invalidated if the price continues down and breaks below the uptrend line. The pair could then drop to $0.60.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
