Analysis: How powerful is Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan

The upcoming assembly elections in Rajasthan are set to be a tough fight between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. Both the parties are facing an internal struggle which is dominated by competition with their rivals. Former Congress Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot poses a significant challenge to the party. Meanwhile, Vasundhara Raje, a senior BJP leader, fights to maintain her presence in the state, despite being sidelined by party leaders in Delhi. Rumors suggest that Sachin Pilot, a prominent leader of the Gujjar community, may form his own party and leave the Congress. However, the impact of this decision on the Congress’s fortunes in the December elections remains uncertain. The question arises: are pilots really so powerful in Rajasthan?

1. Sachin Pilot’s influence: 40 constituencies

Sachin Pilot’s influence directly affects 40 constituencies in different districts including Sawai Madhopur, Jaipur, Ajmer, Bhilwara. These constituencies have a significant number of Gujjar voters who hold substantial power in determining the election results. If Pilot forms a new party, both the Congress and the BJP will suffer a lot.

2. Cooperation of big leaders

Pilot has the support of around 20 MLAs from different communities. These supporters can influence the results in 15 assembly seats apart from the 40 seats dominated by the Gujjar community.

The Catch: Possible MLA defections

At present, Pilot has the support of 22 MLAs including 8 Gurjar MLAs. Though the numbers may seem limited, Pilot continues to have strong support from the Gujjar community. Notable MLAs supporting Pilot include Dipendra Singh Shekhawat, Hemaram Choudhary, Indraj Gurjar and others.

3. Gujjar support for Pilot and dissatisfaction with BJP

The Gujjar community has traditionally supported the BJP due to opposition from the Meena community. However, during the 2018 assembly elections, the Gujjar community shifted its allegiance to the Congress, mainly due to Sachin Pilot. The community expected Pilot to become the chief minister, but he was instead appointed as the deputy chief minister, further fueling their discontent.

4. Impact on Lok Sabha Elections

As the Lok Sabha elections draw near, the Congress is poised for a strong performance in Rajasthan. The results of the assembly elections can have an impact on the Lok Sabha elections as well. The emergence of Sachin Pilot as a prominent leader and his association with the Gujjar vote bank is important for the Congress. There is a significant Gujjar influence in 11 of the state’s 25 parliamentary constituencies. The Gujjar community forms a major part of Rajasthan’s population and voter base.

Lastly, the role and influence of Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan cannot be ignored. His support base, especially among the Gujjar community, and the possible formation of a new party could impact the fortunes of both the Congress and the BJP in the upcoming elections.