Boris Johnson goes full Trump in search of one last act

There is no evil plan. No secret wheezing to ensure Boris Johnson returns to power. All in all what it was, there is a vague gut instinct that it is better to walk away now, keep your options open and see how the land holds up in a few months. Johnson’s entire career has been a series of such gambits, designed to delay the reckoning or change his narrative. Often they have paid. But the former prime minister is running out of road.

The simple fact is that upon receiving a draft of a Commons inquiry into whether he had lied to parliament over lockdown breaches, Johnson looked game over. He was even found guilty by a Tory-dominated committee. He faced severe sanction for raising the possibility of a by-election. His parliamentary colleagues were not going to save him and a recent poll said he could win had he not taken the risk.

So he gave up and cried foul. His accompanying statement was a self-deprecating lament of petty nihilism. It was a “kangaroo court”; He was a victim of injustice and prejudice, a “witch-hunt to avenge Brexit” and (a nod here to his future caucus) a plot to eventually reverse it. It was a devious labor and balance coup. Any speck of his opponents was positioned within reach.

It was Johnson going full-Trump. Never mind that the committee probing him – a committee of his peers – has a Tory majority; Never mind that evidence of his cheating is out there and it appears details of more lockdown breaches are coming to the fore. This is the Trump playbook; Support of the betrayal myth. He was deceived, not defeated. The will of the people is denied. He is their true messenger.

And to cap the nonsense, an attack on his successor, Rishi Sunak, with the message that only Johnson can be trusted to fan the flames of “proper Conservative government” (whatever true Conservatism needs). Can be trusted to remove. Shamelessly he blames Sunak for the lack of a US trade deal he failed to secure and cowardice on housing policy, which he demonstrated. The message is essential. Johnson is still planning the next act.

But is there a real strategy beyond this status quo and opportunism? It is clear that he will not disappear quietly. Even if he cannot return to the top, he intends to create trouble, lash out from outside Parliament, grab headlines and justify his fanciful claims. Some Tories are of the view that the impending sale of the Telegraph provides Johnson with other interesting possibilities for mischief.

But there are only two ways to get back on top and neither is easy. The really long shot is to build a new party around them amid general hatred of the existing ones. But the electoral system works against such plans. The more obvious route is for Johnson to step in before seeking another safe Tory seat in the general election, putting himself in contention to return as leader in the event of a defeat for the party.

The theory may be clear but the reality is much more complex. First he has to confirm that seat. There are probably a number of constituencies he could carry, although in fact the ruthless Tory leader has the levers to prevent this, not least by suspending him from the party and list of candidates for breaches uncovered by a parliamentary inquiry . It will be interesting to see if Sunak gets ready to be openly brutal. He must reflect that his opponent would do the same to him if the roles were reversed.

But even if Johnson was elected and elected, he would face a different scenario. His most fervent followers would have left Westminster; The shrewd tricksters he relied on must have gone to other camps. Ambitious cabinet members, Braverman, Badenoch and so on, would not stand aside for him. And the Tories will have to conclude that they risk going backwards with him rather than a new face. A lot can depend on the scale of a defeat. But even if all the cards fell in his favour, Johnson would face many years in the thankless task of the opposition, a position not ideally suited to his work ethic.

Above all, there is a big difference. Johnson was once an unknown canvas on which voters could pin their hopes. He was a cheeky maverick who the conservative-minded found attractive, his personal failures deepening their sense that he would take over the establishment.

This time it is a known quantity, tried, tested and found desirable. Voters have experienced the dishonesty, immorality and, above all, the anarchy of the Johnson premiership. It should not be forgotten that his downfall came from polls showing a decline in public support.

The Tories know they were gifted with a supermajority and they squandered it. It is true that he had to deal with setbacks that could overwhelm any leader, but they were not setbacks that cost him his job. It was his character that let him down, his laziness and a fundamental lack of seriousness. If this is the end of his top-flight career, his departure has been suitably opportunistic, comical, haughty and dishonest.

It is a cliche of politics that you should never bet against Boris Johnson. This time, it might be worth a flutter in the end.

robert.shrimsley@ft.com