Cambodian leader Hun Sen prepares to hand over power to his son

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In July 2013, tuk-tuk driver Yem Vanthith was a smiling face among a crowd of thousands as he campaigned on the streets of Phnom Penh for the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party.

“I was hoping that our country would become a real democratic country, that we would get complete independence and that our economy would improve,” said Vanthith, 49, showing a photo of himself on the campaign trail 10 years ago with his white cap on . Tyes and autorickshaws are all displaying the CNRP logo.

As Cambodia nears tightly controlled elections for the lower house of parliament on Sunday, Wentith will try not to repeat such scenes again.

A decade after the CNRP won an equal number of votes to the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, Prime Minister Hun Sen has decisively quashed political competition as he prepares to hand over power to his eldest son.

The seventy-year-old strongman, who has led the Southeast Asian nation since 1985, has presided over a sustained crackdown on political opponents, civil society and the free press, which has led to EU sanctions on trade and US sanctions on members of the regime.

Last month, the monitoring committee of social media giant Meta recommended suspending Hun Sen’s account for six months over a Facebook video post in which he threatened to beat up opponents. The Prime Minister avoided any restrictions by leaving the site.

In the last election five years ago, the ruling CPP claimed every seat in parliament after the CNRP was forcibly dissolved. In May, the CNRP’s successor, the Candlelight Party, was blocked from registering to vote this year due to paper technicalities. This ended speculation about whether a severely weakened opposition group – whose leaders have been exiled or imprisoned – would even be allowed to mount a challenge.

“There is no longer any illusion that Cambodia is a democracy,” said Pech Pise, executive director of Transparency International Cambodia.

The government rejects criticism that civil liberties have been curtailed, pointing to the participation of 17 other small parties in Sunday’s election.

Following Candlelight’s disqualification, the Foreign Ministry said, “Cambodia’s commitment to multi-party democracy remains steadfast.”

But none of the running groups, including the scattered remnants of the once-dominant royalist party Funcinpek, come even close to the domestic and international support networks built by the CNRP.

Cambodian political commentator M Sovannara said that unless these smaller parties form a coalition, which appears unlikely, none will have much effect. “He doesn’t have enough popular support to get a seat,” he said.

Campaigning for the 125 seats in the National Assembly has clearly been a one-sided affair. CPP supporters have held rallies, with schools in some areas organizing students to line the streets and wave flags.

Out of competition, the Candlelight Party has faced arrests and violent attacks against its members, and a wave of defection.

“We are almost taking our last breath,” said a senior Candlelight member still in the country, requesting anonymity.

The CPP is trying to increase voter turnout in elections among registered voters in the country of 17 million people by passing a law barring non-voters from holding public office in the future. Hun Sen has also warned of “legal consequences” for anyone encouraging people to spoil ballots in protest, incidents of which have increased in 2018.

The threats are partly a response to exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy’s call to boycott the election. But observers say they also reflect concerns within the CPP about a lack of support for Hun Sen’s plans to hand over power to his eldest son, army commander Hun Manet.

Hun Manet, 45, a graduate of the US West Point military academy, was endorsed as the CPP’s future prime ministerial candidate in 2021. He is running in Sunday’s election in Phnom Penh as a candidate.

Since then, he has made public speeches repeating his father’s rhetoric about the party’s claimed legacy of “peace and development” and attacking “extremist” opponents.

Although victory on Sunday is assured, Hun Sen faces huge political and economic challenges. As he tries to hand over the reins of a highly personal patronage system, he must balance competing interests within an extremely wealthy, government-connected elite.

“The system is so fragile because it depends on a man’s health,” an observer affiliated with the CPP said on condition of anonymity, adding that if anything happened to Hun Sen, “rifts would open within the party”. “.

this is from the article Nikkei Asia, a global publication with a distinctive Asian perspective on politics, economy, business and international affairs. Our own correspondents and external commentators from around the world share their views on Asia, while our Asia300 section provides in-depth coverage of the 300 largest and fastest growing listed companies from 11 economies outside Japan.

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Stephen Higgins, founder and managing partner of Cambodia-based investment firm Mekong Strategic Capital, said the country’s economy is unlikely to meet the World Bank’s forecast of 5.5 percent growth in 2023.

“The World Bank noted earlier this year that risks were to the downside, and those risks are emerging, such as soft external demand, the impact of global financial tightening on the local financial sector, and a slowdown in assets,” he said. ” “On top of that, there has been no improvement in tourism.”

Tuk-tuk driver Vanthith is one of the many casual workers who are struggling to make ends meet. Although he was discouraged by Cambodia’s trajectory, he said he still hoped for change.

He said, “Like a fish caught in a net, we will remain still until one day we get a chance to escape.”

A version This article was first published by Nikkei Asia on July 18. ©2023 Nikkei Inc. All rights reserved.

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GET FREE CAMBODIA UPDATES

we will send you one myFT Daily Digest Latest Email Rounding cambodia News every morning.

In July 2013, tuk-tuk driver Yem Vanthith was a smiling face among a crowd of thousands as he campaigned on the streets of Phnom Penh for the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party.

“I was hoping that our country would become a real democratic country, that we would get complete independence and that our economy would improve,” said Vanthith, 49, showing a photo of himself on the campaign trail 10 years ago with his white cap on . Tyes and autorickshaws are all displaying the CNRP logo.

As Cambodia nears tightly controlled elections for the lower house of parliament on Sunday, Wentith will try not to repeat such scenes again.

A decade after the CNRP won an equal number of votes to the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, Prime Minister Hun Sen has decisively quashed political competition as he prepares to hand over power to his eldest son.

The seventy-year-old strongman, who has led the Southeast Asian nation since 1985, has presided over a sustained crackdown on political opponents, civil society and the free press, which has led to EU sanctions on trade and US sanctions on members of the regime.

Last month, the monitoring committee of social media giant Meta recommended suspending Hun Sen’s account for six months over a Facebook video post in which he threatened to beat up opponents. The Prime Minister avoided any restrictions by leaving the site.

In the last election five years ago, the ruling CPP claimed every seat in parliament after the CNRP was forcibly dissolved. In May, the CNRP’s successor, the Candlelight Party, was blocked from registering to vote this year due to paper technicalities. This ended speculation about whether a severely weakened opposition group – whose leaders have been exiled or imprisoned – would even be allowed to mount a challenge.

“There is no longer any illusion that Cambodia is a democracy,” said Pech Pise, executive director of Transparency International Cambodia.

The government rejects criticism that civil liberties have been curtailed, pointing to the participation of 17 other small parties in Sunday’s election.

Following Candlelight’s disqualification, the Foreign Ministry said, “Cambodia’s commitment to multi-party democracy remains steadfast.”

But none of the running groups, including the scattered remnants of the once-dominant royalist party Funcinpek, come even close to the domestic and international support networks built by the CNRP.

Cambodian political commentator M Sovannara said that unless these smaller parties form a coalition, which appears unlikely, none will have much effect. “He doesn’t have enough popular support to get a seat,” he said.

Campaigning for the 125 seats in the National Assembly has clearly been a one-sided affair. CPP supporters have held rallies, with schools in some areas organizing students to line the streets and wave flags.

Out of competition, the Candlelight Party has faced arrests and violent attacks against its members, and a wave of defection.

“We are almost taking our last breath,” said a senior Candlelight member still in the country, requesting anonymity.

The CPP is trying to increase voter turnout in elections among registered voters in the country of 17 million people by passing a law barring non-voters from holding public office in the future. Hun Sen has also warned of “legal consequences” for anyone encouraging people to spoil ballots in protest, incidents of which have increased in 2018.

The threats are partly a response to exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy’s call to boycott the election. But observers say they also reflect concerns within the CPP about a lack of support for Hun Sen’s plans to hand over power to his eldest son, army commander Hun Manet.

Hun Manet, 45, a graduate of the US West Point military academy, was endorsed as the CPP’s future prime ministerial candidate in 2021. He is running in Sunday’s election in Phnom Penh as a candidate.

Since then, he has made public speeches repeating his father’s rhetoric about the party’s claimed legacy of “peace and development” and attacking “extremist” opponents.

Although victory on Sunday is assured, Hun Sen faces huge political and economic challenges. As he tries to hand over the reins of a highly personal patronage system, he must balance competing interests within an extremely wealthy, government-connected elite.

“The system is so fragile because it depends on a man’s health,” an observer affiliated with the CPP said on condition of anonymity, adding that if anything happened to Hun Sen, “rifts would open within the party”. “.

this is from the article Nikkei Asia, a global publication with a distinctive Asian perspective on politics, economy, business and international affairs. Our own correspondents and external commentators from around the world share their views on Asia, while our Asia300 section provides in-depth coverage of the 300 largest and fastest growing listed companies from 11 economies outside Japan.

subscribe , group memberships

Stephen Higgins, founder and managing partner of Cambodia-based investment firm Mekong Strategic Capital, said the country’s economy is unlikely to meet the World Bank’s forecast of 5.5 percent growth in 2023.

“The World Bank noted earlier this year that risks were to the downside, and those risks are emerging, such as soft external demand, the impact of global financial tightening on the local financial sector, and a slowdown in assets,” he said. ” “On top of that, there has been no improvement in tourism.”

Tuk-tuk driver Vanthith is one of the many casual workers who are struggling to make ends meet. Although he was discouraged by Cambodia’s trajectory, he said he still hoped for change.

He said, “Like a fish caught in a net, we will remain still until one day we get a chance to escape.”

A version This article was first published by Nikkei Asia on July 18. ©2023 Nikkei Inc. All rights reserved.

Related Stories