China’s military system is designed to thwart any potential Prigozhin

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The author is a former British diplomat specializing in China. He is now a Fellow of the Council on Geostrategy, the Royal United Services Institute and the Mercator Institute for China Studies

Whatever Yevgeny Prigozhin was plotting in Russia last week – mutiny, mutiny, civil war – a military coup of this scale would never have been possible in China. The Chinese Communist Party maintains tight control over its military forces. The People’s Liberation Army is the party’s army, not the national army. The idea that anyone outside the PLA and the People’s Armed Police can have the right to bear arms is anathema.

Such heresies were put down as early as 1929, only two years after the PLA was founded. The army served the party, not the state. At the famous Gutian Conference, the resolution “On Rectifying Wrong Ideas in the Party” underlined that the PLA was not just a military force, but was also tasked with establishing propaganda and political power. Mao Zedong reiterated this nine years later: “Our principle is that the Party controls the gun, and the gun must never be allowed to control the Party.”

By the beginning of Xi Jinping’s rule, some public intellectuals had begun advocating for the nationalization of the military by disassociating it from the Party leadership. At the earliest opportunity, Xi made sure that the CCP studied the collapse of the Soviet Communist Party. In a major speech on its demise in 2012, he concluded that, “In the Soviet Union, where the military was not politicized, separated from the party and nationalized, the party was disarmed.”

Xi wanted none of this. In 2013, shortly after assuming power, he ordered another Gutarian convention, deliberately choosing the location and the 85th anniversary of the 1929 Congress. It was reiterated in the meeting that the idea of ​​nationalizing PLA has become increasingly popular, but such calls must stop. In the words of the party press, the idea was “strangled”. As the “decision” of the 2014 Gutian Conference made clear, the military “shall be determined at all times and under all circumstances to obey the orders” of Chairman Xi and the Party Central Committee.

Xi’s military reforms, listed in order of priority, included strengthening ideological commitment to the party, recruiting and promoting the right people, fighting corruption, combat efficiency, and political innovation.

It is surprising that the fighting ability is only in fourth place. But this is no surprise, given that the PLA is the ultimate guarantor of the party’s grip on power (in contrast, in Russia, it has traditionally been Putin’s security services, rather than the military, that fulfill this role). Are). The memories of Tiananmen in 1989 also became fresh. The CCP came very close to losing power, not only because some military units refused to move against the protesters.

As the PLA’s 2015 reforms progressed, the Central Military Commission – which is chaired by Xi – was revamped with personnel whose political experience made it clear that the party remained firmly in command. And at the next level, Xi has replaced hundreds of top officials with generals he can trust. The military is playing its part in this year’s new political campaign “the study and implementation of Xi Jinping’s Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”.

As a result, the idea of ​​a figure like Prigozhin leading a rebellion against the CCP is unimaginable. Nor is there a possibility of a military coup. The party is in the army, but the army is also in the party. Of the 24 members of the Politburo, two are generals, and about a fifth of the Central Committee are from the PLA. His interests are deliberately aligned with those of the party. There is no political division between civilians and the military.

Even in times of chaos, such as during the Cultural Revolution, the PLA never acted against the party while restoring order. Mao removed its leader, Lin Biao, just as Deng Xiaoping and Xi removed top generals, accepting it. If there is a serious leadership split that leads to an economic downturn, the PLA may align with one political faction or the other. But at present there is only one faction in China and that is Xi’s.

Joe Biden calls both Vladimir Putin and Xi dictators. But while the former is clearly an autocrat, Xi, to the extent that he is a dictator, being the “core” of the CCP is one of those who still have power structures in place. As stated in its constitution, China is a state “under the democratic dictatorship of the people”, which literally translates to “under the dictatorship of the party”.

Therefore, if the PLA ever moves against Xi, it will only move against itself.