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Global surface air temperatures temporarily exceeded the 1.5C warming threshold in early June as the world’s oceans hit record-high temperatures for two months.
If the trend continues, the level of global warming since the pre-industrial era presents a serious indicator of worsening climate change.
Scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service said the first 11 days of June were the warmest on record for this time of year, and the 1.5C warming limit had been temporarily exceeded.
The threshold was first crossed during December 2015, and was crossed “repeatedly” in 2016 and 2020. It was violated for the first time in June this year.
“The findings should be a stark warning sign that we are moving into very hot uncharted territory,” said Melissa Lazenby, lecturer in climate change at the University of Sussex in the UK.
The Paris Agreement commits countries to ideally limit long-term warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Long-term warming is already at least 1.1C.
Meanwhile, global ocean temperatures reached their highest level for April and May, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It stated that above-normal sea surface temperatures “had recently spread over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific”.
Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean reached unprecedented highs in June
*Comparison of 1971 to 2000 average • Source: NOAA Physical Science Laboratory • Cartography: Steven Bernard feet
Animated map showing sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans
Thomas Smith, a professor of environmental geography at the London School of Economics, noted that an enormous amount of energy is stored in the top few meters of the ocean, and warned that warmer water temperatures would mean a much larger amount would be transferred to the atmosphere.
Scientists this month announced the return of El Niño, the weather phenomenon linked to warming in the Pacific Ocean. But he said the recent record was not a direct result of the heat, as its effects are usually felt after they have been active for some time.
“There tends to be a lag,” said Rocky Bilotta, a NOAA climatologist. El Niño was “likely to have a greater impact on the 2024 season of global warming rather than the current one in 2023. But that doesn’t mean we’re not already seeing the impact,” he said.
LSE’s Smith said the unusually warm Atlantic and Indian oceans meant “this El Niño may not be like the others” as the warming effect dominates the Pacific Ocean.
“The unprecedented conditions present a challenge to those forecasting weather conditions in the coming months,” he said.
NOAA said there is a more than 90 percent chance of El Niño lasting through 2024.
It has raised concerns about unprecedented heatwaves this year and next. 2022 was the fifth warmest year ever, despite the cooling effect of the La Niña weather phenomenon – in contrast to El Niño – which was present for three consecutive years.
Albert Klein Tank, director of the UK Met Office Hadley Center for Climate Science, said: “With an emerging El Niño there is a possibility that the mean surface global temperature for the whole of this year or next could exceed 1.5C for a year. ” and services.
NOAA said global land and ocean temperatures for the March to May period were the third warmest on record, and there was a 99.5 percent chance that 2023 would be a “top 10” warmest year.
Temperature satellite images of fires taken last week show smoke drifting across North America from fires burning in the provinces of Ontario and Quebec © AP
Nearly a quarter of the contiguous US is in drought, while wildfires have raged across vast swathes of Canada and countries including the UK and China are also experiencing unusually warm conditions.
A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, making heavy storms more likely to occur.
But warmer conditions can also draw more moisture from the land into the atmosphere, increasing the risk of drought and wildfires.
climate capital
Where climate change meets business, markets and politics. Explore FT’s coverage here.
Are you curious about FT’s environmental sustainability commitments? Learn more about our science-based goals here
Global surface air temperatures temporarily exceeded the 1.5C warming threshold in early June as the world’s oceans hit record-high temperatures for two months.
If the trend continues, the level of global warming since the pre-industrial era presents a serious indicator of worsening climate change.
Scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service said the first 11 days of June were the warmest on record for this time of year, and the 1.5C warming limit had been temporarily exceeded.
The threshold was first crossed during December 2015, and was crossed “repeatedly” in 2016 and 2020. It was violated for the first time in June this year.
“The findings should be a stark warning sign that we are moving into very hot uncharted territory,” said Melissa Lazenby, lecturer in climate change at the University of Sussex in the UK.
The Paris Agreement commits countries to ideally limit long-term warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Long-term warming is already at least 1.1C.
Meanwhile, global ocean temperatures reached their highest level for April and May, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It stated that above-normal sea surface temperatures “had recently spread over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific”.
Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean reached unprecedented highs in June
*Comparison of 1971 to 2000 average • Source: NOAA Physical Science Laboratory • Cartography: Steven Bernard feet
Animated map showing sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans
Thomas Smith, a professor of environmental geography at the London School of Economics, noted that an enormous amount of energy is stored in the top few meters of the ocean, and warned that warmer water temperatures would mean a much larger amount would be transferred to the atmosphere.
Scientists this month announced the return of El Niño, the weather phenomenon linked to warming in the Pacific Ocean. But he said the recent record was not a direct result of the heat, as its effects are usually felt after they have been active for some time.
“There tends to be a lag,” said Rocky Bilotta, a NOAA climatologist. El Niño was “likely to have a greater impact on the 2024 season of global warming rather than the current one in 2023. But that doesn’t mean we’re not already seeing the impact,” he said.
LSE’s Smith said the unusually warm Atlantic and Indian oceans meant “this El Niño may not be like the others” as the warming effect dominates the Pacific Ocean.
“The unprecedented conditions present a challenge to those forecasting weather conditions in the coming months,” he said.
NOAA said there is a more than 90 percent chance of El Niño lasting through 2024.
It has raised concerns about unprecedented heatwaves this year and next. 2022 was the fifth warmest year ever, despite the cooling effect of the La Niña weather phenomenon – in contrast to El Niño – which was present for three consecutive years.
Albert Klein Tank, director of the UK Met Office Hadley Center for Climate Science, said: “With an emerging El Niño there is a possibility that the mean surface global temperature for the whole of this year or next could exceed 1.5C for a year. ” and services.
NOAA said global land and ocean temperatures for the March to May period were the third warmest on record, and there was a 99.5 percent chance that 2023 would be a “top 10” warmest year.
Temperature satellite images of fires taken last week show smoke drifting across North America from fires burning in the provinces of Ontario and Quebec © AP
Nearly a quarter of the contiguous US is in drought, while wildfires have raged across vast swathes of Canada and countries including the UK and China are also experiencing unusually warm conditions.
A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, making heavy storms more likely to occur.
But warmer conditions can also draw more moisture from the land into the atmosphere, increasing the risk of drought and wildfires.
climate capital
Where climate change meets business, markets and politics. Explore FT’s coverage here.
Are you curious about FT’s environmental sustainability commitments? Learn more about our science-based goals here
