Erdogan poll lead signals Turkish opposition soul-searching

Turkey’s main opposition candidate Kemal Kilikdaroglu called on voters to “get over it” in the first round, believing victory against Recep Tayyip Erdogan was finally within reach.

But rather than end Erdogan’s two-decade-long rule, Sunday’s presidential election figures have triggered soul-searching in the opposition ranks – with the second round of voting only two weeks away.

While the opposition appeared likely to deny Erdogan a first-round victory, the result still presented Kılıçdaroğlu with one of the worst-case scenarios ahead of an election that has been projected by both main candidates as a battle for Turkey’s future. has been depicted.

In the early hours of Monday, Erdoğan could not resist poking fun at his leadership and his rival Kılıçdaroğlu, whose campaign videos shot from his kitchen table helped him surge in pre-election opinion polls.

“Some are in the kitchen,” Erdoğan told a crowd of supporters. “We’re on the balcony.”

Turkey’s opposition parties have a history of underestimating popular support against Erdogan. But Kılıçdaroğlu’s six-party coalition came into Sunday’s vote with the wind in its sails, as respected polling polls indicated it could take half the vote.

But with nearly all ballot boxes open, it was actually Erdoğan who was within less than 1 percentage point of the 50 percent mark, and Kılıçdaroğlu trailing with nearly 45 percent.

“For Kilicdaroglu, it’s going to be an uphill struggle (going forward),” said Wolfgango Piccoli, co-chairman of Teneo Consultancy, adding that the 74-year-old opposition leader was “going to be on his back foot”. as he campaigns against Erdogan, 69, ahead of a second round of elections on May 28.

Erdoğan not only emerged as the frontrunner in the presidential race, but is also set to lead his parliamentary coalition, which includes his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), to victory. Multitudinous.

Emre Erdoğan, a professor of political science at Istanbul’s Bilgi University, said that “a run-off makes things very complicated for the opposition”. He added that “the lack of a majority in parliament would work against Kiliçdaroğlu” as President Erdoğan would be able to argue voting for him would ensure stability in a country long ruled by coalition governments.

The demonstrations challenging the election underscored Erdogan’s enduring appeal and the resonance of his political proposition based on a conservative, pious electorate with a strong nationalist leaning.

Erdoğan used his entire state apparatus to quell their protests, doling out handouts such as public sector wage increases and free gas to households in the weeks before Sunday’s vote.

The opposition coalition was brimming with energy after voting ended on Sunday evening, and was quick to accuse state media of “betraying” the nation by allegedly reporting earlier from Erdoğan’s strongholds.

But Kılıçdaroğlu’s team had accepted by Monday morning that Turkey was most likely to contest the second round.

Voter fatigue can now become a serious issue for the opposition. Ercan Erguzel, an analyst at Barclays in London, said: “Opposition voters could be losing motivation after worse-than-expected results in both the parliamentary and presidential elections.” He added that the provisional results show that Turkey’s “political landscape will remain largely unchanged”.

Kılıçdaroğlu struggled to form his six-party coalition made up of groups with widely differing views. He also faced serious challenges from within the opposition as to whether he was the right candidate to run against Erdoğan, as he led the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s main opposition party, which had held office at the national level for 13 years. But did not win. stage.

Meral Aksener, the head of the I party, which is the second largest group in the “Table of Six” coalition, publicly rejected his appointment as the coalition’s candidate in March, and only once it was agreed. The latter endorsed that the popular mayor of Istanbul and Ankara would be made the vice-presidential candidate. Now, some opposition supporters worry the relationship between the parties could be falling apart.

The second round of elections could come down to which candidate could garner roughly 5 percent of the vote, which was won by Sinan Ogan, a third-party candidate who broke away from the MHP and ran for president under its banner. Was.

Ogan declined to say Sunday who he would back in the run-off election, leaving a void that the two remaining candidates will run to fill.

“Turkish nationalists and Ataturkists will determine the outcome of the second round. I will not say exactly which side we will support at this time,” Oan said, referring to Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who over a century ago ruled the country as an ultra-secular state. Turkey was founded in

Ogan made demands that would be difficult for both Erdogan and Kilikdaroglu to meet. For example, his terms include “saving Turkey from the nonsense that interest rates cause inflation” – an unorthodox stance that is central to Erdogan’s economic policies. Meanwhile, Ogan told Germany’s Der Spiegel newspaper that he would only support Kılıçdaroğlu if he renounced the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) – a group that supported the opposition leader in the presidential election.

Bilgi University’s Erdoğan said that the HDP’s opposition to Ogan made it very difficult for him to reach an agreement with the opposition. He added, “The Kurds were a major factor in Kilikdaroglu’s performance, and they will still need them in the second round.”

“Erdoğan is more likely than Kiliçdaroğlu to negotiate with Oğan. He heads a right-wing coalition that may agree to Oan’s demands and has a history of making very pragmatic deals to win elections.

Turkey’s main opposition candidate Kemal Kilikdaroglu called on voters to “get over it” in the first round, believing victory against Recep Tayyip Erdogan was finally within reach.

But rather than end Erdogan’s two-decade-long rule, Sunday’s presidential election figures have triggered soul-searching in the opposition ranks – with the second round of voting only two weeks away.

While the opposition appeared likely to deny Erdogan a first-round victory, the result still presented Kılıçdaroğlu with one of the worst-case scenarios ahead of an election that has been projected by both main candidates as a battle for Turkey’s future. has been depicted.

In the early hours of Monday, Erdoğan could not resist poking fun at his leadership and his rival Kılıçdaroğlu, whose campaign videos shot from his kitchen table helped him surge in pre-election opinion polls.

“Some are in the kitchen,” Erdoğan told a crowd of supporters. “We’re on the balcony.”

Turkey’s opposition parties have a history of underestimating popular support against Erdogan. But Kılıçdaroğlu’s six-party coalition came into Sunday’s vote with the wind in its sails, as respected polling polls indicated it could take half the vote.

But with nearly all ballot boxes open, it was actually Erdoğan who was within less than 1 percentage point of the 50 percent mark, and Kılıçdaroğlu trailing with nearly 45 percent.

“For Kilicdaroglu, it’s going to be an uphill struggle (going forward),” said Wolfgango Piccoli, co-chairman of Teneo Consultancy, adding that the 74-year-old opposition leader was “going to be on his back foot”. as he campaigns against Erdogan, 69, ahead of a second round of elections on May 28.

Erdoğan not only emerged as the frontrunner in the presidential race, but is also set to lead his parliamentary coalition, which includes his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), to victory. Multitudinous.

Emre Erdoğan, a professor of political science at Istanbul’s Bilgi University, said that “a run-off makes things very complicated for the opposition”. He added that “the lack of a majority in parliament would work against Kiliçdaroğlu” as President Erdoğan would be able to argue voting for him would ensure stability in a country long ruled by coalition governments.

The demonstrations challenging the election underscored Erdogan’s enduring appeal and the resonance of his political proposition based on a conservative, pious electorate with a strong nationalist leaning.

Erdoğan used his entire state apparatus to quell their protests, doling out handouts such as public sector wage increases and free gas to households in the weeks before Sunday’s vote.

The opposition coalition was brimming with energy after voting ended on Sunday evening, and was quick to accuse state media of “betraying” the nation by allegedly reporting earlier from Erdoğan’s strongholds.

But Kılıçdaroğlu’s team had accepted by Monday morning that Turkey was most likely to contest the second round.

Voter fatigue can now become a serious issue for the opposition. Ercan Erguzel, an analyst at Barclays in London, said: “Opposition voters could be losing motivation after worse-than-expected results in both the parliamentary and presidential elections.” He added that the provisional results show that Turkey’s “political landscape will remain largely unchanged”.

Kılıçdaroğlu struggled to form his six-party coalition made up of groups with widely differing views. He also faced serious challenges from within the opposition as to whether he was the right candidate to run against Erdoğan, as he led the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s main opposition party, which had held office at the national level for 13 years. But did not win. stage.

Meral Aksener, the head of the I party, which is the second largest group in the “Table of Six” coalition, publicly rejected his appointment as the coalition’s candidate in March, and only once it was agreed. The latter endorsed that the popular mayor of Istanbul and Ankara would be made the vice-presidential candidate. Now, some opposition supporters worry the relationship between the parties could be falling apart.

The second round of elections could come down to which candidate could garner roughly 5 percent of the vote, which was won by Sinan Ogan, a third-party candidate who broke away from the MHP and ran for president under its banner. Was.

Ogan declined to say Sunday who he would back in the run-off election, leaving a void that the two remaining candidates will run to fill.

“Turkish nationalists and Ataturkists will determine the outcome of the second round. I will not say exactly which side we will support at this time,” Oan said, referring to Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who over a century ago ruled the country as an ultra-secular state. Turkey was founded in

Ogan made demands that would be difficult for both Erdogan and Kilikdaroglu to meet. For example, his terms include “saving Turkey from the nonsense that interest rates cause inflation” – an unorthodox stance that is central to Erdogan’s economic policies. Meanwhile, Ogan told Germany’s Der Spiegel newspaper that he would only support Kılıçdaroğlu if he renounced the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) – a group that supported the opposition leader in the presidential election.

Bilgi University’s Erdoğan said that the HDP’s opposition to Ogan made it very difficult for him to reach an agreement with the opposition. He added, “The Kurds were a major factor in Kilikdaroglu’s performance, and they will still need them in the second round.”

“Erdoğan is more likely than Kiliçdaroğlu to negotiate with Oğan. He heads a right-wing coalition that may agree to Oan’s demands and has a history of making very pragmatic deals to win elections.