German opposition’s ‘disruptive’ battles on far-right and internal rivalries on the rise

The leader of the German opposition, Friedrich Merz, should take advantage of the high approval ratings and establish himself as Chancellor-in-waiting of his country. In theory, at least.

Instead, he is watching with disbelief as voters disaffected with Olaf Scholz’s government flock to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), now the country’s second most popular party.

Merz’s Christian Democratic Union has suffered a defeat in the polls, just as the AfD is experiencing a surge in support, fueled by concerns about inflation, recession, the war in Ukraine, and the government’s confused climate policies.

“People are feeling very insecure, but unfortunately the CDU – Germany’s largest democratic opposition party – is struggling to address that insecurity,” said Marco Vanderwitz, a lawmaker from Merz’s party. “Instead a lot of voters are supporting the AfD.”

It is a result that is likely to be particularly disappointing for Merz, who was elected CDU leader last year and has promised to win back conservative voters who are now flirting with the AfD.

Claus-Peter Schöppner of pollsters Mantefactum said, “Merz had said he would halve the AfD’s vote share and instead doubled it.” “Meanwhile the CDU is stuck in a 30 percent hole that it cannot climb out of.”

Merz’s troubles have been compounded by an internal rivalry with Hendrik Wüst, the CDU prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state. The German press is increasingly viewing Wüst as a possible CDU candidate for chancellor in elections due in late 2025 – a role Merz has long hoped for.

Wüst has been appearing everywhere, has published an op-ed piece in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, which he has asked friendly parliamentarians in Berlin to share on social media, has given speeches at regional conferences of the CDU and the local news Gave interviews to the papers.

This has clearly upset Merz, who launched an unprecedented attack on his rival last Sunday. Speaking to public broadcaster ZDF, he said that dissatisfaction with Wüst’s government in NRW was “as great as that of the federal government”.

He said, “If we had regional elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the AfD (there) would be almost as strong as it is at the national level.”

Seasoned observers were perplexed. German politicians rarely publicly criticize party mates, especially those running a regional government in a large state like the NRW.

A CDU legislator from the region said, “Many people in my state found it really offensive, especially since Wüst is polling much better than Merz.” “He clearly sees Wuest as real competition.”

It is a tense time for Merz, who has long had his eye on Germany’s highest post.

Seen as one of the CDU’s rising stars in the early 2000s, he left politics after being sidelined by his arch-rival Angela Merkel. He served as the chairman of BlackRock Germany for four years and became a millionaire in the process. But the 67-year-old always yearned to return to national politics.

However, it was a difficult path. Merz was only elected CDU leader in his third attempt in January 2022. Many in the party saw him as a polarizing figure who they feared might alienate provisional voters.

Wust, who is 20 years younger, is seen as more moderate. The trained lawyer was catapulted to the frontline of CDU politics after winning elections in the NRW last May and forming an unprecedented coalition with the Greens, seen by many as a model for a national government in Berlin Was.

Since that victory, Wüst’s national reputation has slowly grown. In a recent popularity ranking by pollsters INSA, he was second only to the popular Defense Minister of Germany, Boris Pistorius. Merz fell behind, limping in eighth place.

Meanwhile, Wüst begins to build his political clout by portraying himself as Merkel’s natural successor. In his Frankfurter Allgemeine article, he stated that the CDU should remain “an anchor of centrist stability”.

He wrote, “Those who score cheap points and run after populists are axing their roots and plunging themselves into chaos.”

This was widely interpreted as a jibe at Merz, who occasionally interjects into the rhetoric heard at AfD rallies. Last year he accused Ukrainian refugees of “welfare tourism”. Earlier this year, he described the sons of immigrants as “little Pasha”.

A controversial speech by Claudia Pechstein, a policewoman and former German speedskating champion, at a CDU event at the weekend further raised doubts about Merz’s leadership.

Pechstein, who was widely criticized for wearing a police uniform on the program, railed against asylum seekers, gender-neutral language, and non-traditional families. Merz called his speech “fantastic”.

The moderates in his party were horrified. “We are not even trying to reconnect with the youth, the townspeople, the women,” said a CDU MP. “We are focusing on 70-year-olds living in rural areas who go to church every Sunday. This is not a development strategy.”

Wuest’s supporters say he would avoid such missteps. A CDU lawmaker said, “They never let someone like Pechstein on stage.”

The conference at which Pechstein spoke was one of several organized by Merz to pave the way for a new party program. The idea is to talk to members about what the party really wants before moving on to the question of who should stand as a candidate for chancellor in 2025. “We need a little strategic patience,” Merz told ZDF.

But Wüst has hindered his opponent’s works. Asked last week by the Rheinische Post whether he wanted to run as a CDU candidate in 2025, he said that his “duty is currently in North Rhine-Westphalia”. It seems that the term “in the present” was coined to make people aware of their future ambitions.

Mentefactum’s Schöppner said, “Merz always said he needed two to three years to restore the CDU’s fortunes.” “But people don’t seem ready to give him that. There is already talk of who should be their candidate for chancellor – even though, with 2.5 years to go before the election, now is clearly not the right time.

Vanderwitz sees the confrontation between Merz and Wüst as a symptom of their party’s identity crisis. “What do we want to be? A constructive protest? A mainstream centrist party in the tradition of Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel? Or do we want to make noise and be disruptive?

“We haven’t really solved that puzzle yet and until we do, it’s going to be a real problem for us.”

The leader of the German opposition, Friedrich Merz, should take advantage of the high approval ratings and establish himself as Chancellor-in-waiting of his country. In theory, at least.

Instead, he is watching with disbelief as voters disaffected with Olaf Scholz’s government flock to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), now the country’s second most popular party.

Merz’s Christian Democratic Union has suffered a defeat in the polls, just as the AfD is experiencing a surge in support, fueled by concerns about inflation, recession, the war in Ukraine, and the government’s confused climate policies.

“People are feeling very insecure, but unfortunately the CDU – Germany’s largest democratic opposition party – is struggling to address that insecurity,” said Marco Vanderwitz, a lawmaker from Merz’s party. “Instead a lot of voters are supporting the AfD.”

It is a result that is likely to be particularly disappointing for Merz, who was elected CDU leader last year and has promised to win back conservative voters who are now flirting with the AfD.

Claus-Peter Schöppner of pollsters Mantefactum said, “Merz had said he would halve the AfD’s vote share and instead doubled it.” “Meanwhile the CDU is stuck in a 30 percent hole that it cannot climb out of.”

Merz’s troubles have been compounded by an internal rivalry with Hendrik Wüst, the CDU prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state. The German press is increasingly viewing Wüst as a possible CDU candidate for chancellor in elections due in late 2025 – a role Merz has long hoped for.

Wüst has been appearing everywhere, has published an op-ed piece in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, which he has asked friendly parliamentarians in Berlin to share on social media, has given speeches at regional conferences of the CDU and the local news Gave interviews to the papers.

This has clearly upset Merz, who launched an unprecedented attack on his rival last Sunday. Speaking to public broadcaster ZDF, he said that dissatisfaction with Wüst’s government in NRW was “as great as that of the federal government”.

He said, “If we had regional elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the AfD (there) would be almost as strong as it is at the national level.”

Seasoned observers were perplexed. German politicians rarely publicly criticize party mates, especially those running a regional government in a large state like the NRW.

A CDU legislator from the region said, “Many people in my state found it really offensive, especially since Wüst is polling much better than Merz.” “He clearly sees Wuest as real competition.”

It is a tense time for Merz, who has long had his eye on Germany’s highest post.

Seen as one of the CDU’s rising stars in the early 2000s, he left politics after being sidelined by his arch-rival Angela Merkel. He served as the chairman of BlackRock Germany for four years and became a millionaire in the process. But the 67-year-old always yearned to return to national politics.

However, it was a difficult path. Merz was only elected CDU leader in his third attempt in January 2022. Many in the party saw him as a polarizing figure who they feared might alienate provisional voters.

Wust, who is 20 years younger, is seen as more moderate. The trained lawyer was catapulted to the frontline of CDU politics after winning elections in the NRW last May and forming an unprecedented coalition with the Greens, seen by many as a model for a national government in Berlin Was.

Since that victory, Wüst’s national reputation has slowly grown. In a recent popularity ranking by pollsters INSA, he was second only to the popular Defense Minister of Germany, Boris Pistorius. Merz fell behind, limping in eighth place.

Meanwhile, Wüst begins to build his political clout by portraying himself as Merkel’s natural successor. In his Frankfurter Allgemeine article, he stated that the CDU should remain “an anchor of centrist stability”.

He wrote, “Those who score cheap points and run after populists are axing their roots and plunging themselves into chaos.”

This was widely interpreted as a jibe at Merz, who occasionally interjects into the rhetoric heard at AfD rallies. Last year he accused Ukrainian refugees of “welfare tourism”. Earlier this year, he described the sons of immigrants as “little Pasha”.

A controversial speech by Claudia Pechstein, a policewoman and former German speedskating champion, at a CDU event at the weekend further raised doubts about Merz’s leadership.

Pechstein, who was widely criticized for wearing a police uniform on the program, railed against asylum seekers, gender-neutral language, and non-traditional families. Merz called his speech “fantastic”.

The moderates in his party were horrified. “We are not even trying to reconnect with the youth, the townspeople, the women,” said a CDU MP. “We are focusing on 70-year-olds living in rural areas who go to church every Sunday. This is not a development strategy.”

Wuest’s supporters say he would avoid such missteps. A CDU lawmaker said, “They never let someone like Pechstein on stage.”

The conference at which Pechstein spoke was one of several organized by Merz to pave the way for a new party program. The idea is to talk to members about what the party really wants before moving on to the question of who should stand as a candidate for chancellor in 2025. “We need a little strategic patience,” Merz told ZDF.

But Wüst has hindered his opponent’s works. Asked last week by the Rheinische Post whether he wanted to run as a CDU candidate in 2025, he said that his “duty is currently in North Rhine-Westphalia”. It seems that the term “in the present” was coined to make people aware of their future ambitions.

Mentefactum’s Schöppner said, “Merz always said he needed two to three years to restore the CDU’s fortunes.” “But people don’t seem ready to give him that. There is already talk of who should be their candidate for chancellor – even though, with 2.5 years to go before the election, now is clearly not the right time.

Vanderwitz sees the confrontation between Merz and Wüst as a symptom of their party’s identity crisis. “What do we want to be? A constructive protest? A mainstream centrist party in the tradition of Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel? Or do we want to make noise and be disruptive?

“We haven’t really solved that puzzle yet and until we do, it’s going to be a real problem for us.”