Guatemala’s democracy ‘at risk’ after court delays presidential election results

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An anti-corruption candidate running in Guatemala’s second round of elections said he feared “criminal political groups” were trying to prevent him from running for president after a court suspended the results of the first round.

“Guatemala’s democracy is in terrible danger,” Bernardo Arevalo, 64, told the Financial Times. “We fear that this (suspension) is opening the door to see what happens along the way to prevent us from getting to the second round.”

Arévalo was a surprise runner-up in last month’s first round presidential election. This earned her a place in the run-off vote against former first lady Sandra Torres in August.

Securing a place in the run-off has also put Arevalo under attack from some members of the country’s political and business elite, who analysts say are determined to maintain the status quo in Central America’s largest economy.

A group of 10 political parties filed legal challenges against the results of the first round, alleging irregularities in the tallying process, and on Saturday Guatemala’s top court ordered the suspension of official results pending a five-day review. This prompted the US government to express “deep concern”.

Arevalo said the challenges have no legal basis because the period for presenting the complaints has already passed. They fear the court’s decision could signal a wider effort to help the ruling party’s candidate, third-place finisher Manuel Conde, or even delay the process by which Congress will choose a new temporary leader. .

Arévalo claimed that Guatemalan political parties are “the manifestation of a conspiracy by criminal political groups that have divergent interests” that “refuse to lose control of the system”.

The current president, conservative Alejandro Giammattei, would have to step down under Guatemala’s current single-term limit.

In the June election, nearly a quarter of ballots were left blank or spoiled due to public discontent, and no candidate won more than 16 percent of the vote after a vigorous campaign that saw four candidates drop out for various technical reasons. was done.

The centre-left UNE party, whose candidate Torres was in first place, was among the parties to file a legal challenge. Analysts say groups opposing Arevalo are probably more comfortable with Torres.

Election Supervisor for the Organization of American States Said There was no reason to suspect irregularities large enough to alter the outcome, and the review ordered by the Constitutional Court was not spelled out in Guatemalan law.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that Washington was “deeply concerned” by attempts to interfere in Guatemala’s election. “Undermining the June 25 election would be a serious threat to democracy that would have far-reaching implications,” he said in a statement.

Guatemala, which ended a brutal 36-year civil war in 1996, has a stable economy but high levels of poverty and malnutrition, forcing more than 230,000 of its citizens to cross the US border illegally in 2022 .

Arévalo, an outsider who was slow in voting ahead of the vote, said he thinks the country is at a crossroads. “In these elections, the country can really start on the right track and stop this process of decline,” he said. “People keep fleeing the country to find a future in the United States of America because this country doesn’t offer them that.”

His party, the Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement), has its roots in the “Guatemala Spring”, protests against political corruption uncovered by a UN-backed investigative body in the country.

Since that institution was abruptly shuttered in 2019, dozens of journalists, former prosecutors and judges involved in its work have been jailed or fled into exile. Arevalo, who participated in the protests, wants to work with former officials to design a new anti-corruption system.

“They are the Guatemalans who understand best how the corrupt occupation of the system operates,” he said.

The election also raises questions on foreign policy. Guatemala is one of the few countries in the region that maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Panama, El Salvador and Honduras have severed ties with China in recent years. Arevalo wants to strengthen ties with China but said he would make any decisions based on what would be best for the country.

Arevalo, who was born in exile in Uruguay, said he was a social democrat in favor of a regulated market economy. He will not raise taxes but combat tax evasion, while also exploring public-private partnerships for infrastructure projects.

Arevalo said that the last three governments have seen a democratic decline, and he hopes that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal will not allow any more illegalities.

“If the electoral system, which was almost the last guarantee of producing some kind of solution, is lost, what is the guarantee?” They said.