Highest ‘fear’ in 3 months as $26.4K prime hits – 5 things to know in bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) exits a busy macro week to encircle some classic trend lines near $26,000 – what could happen next?

After some brutal tests of traders’ resolve over the past seven days, BTC price is still holding onto familiar ground.

Market participants are in a “wait and see” mode as a lack of clear direction characterizes most major cryptocurrencies at the start of a new week of trading.

United States holidays mean traditional markets will only open on June 20, giving at least a day’s grace before any unforeseen events.

There’s still a lot to deal with from the past week, though — including the BlackRock filing for a bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Rumors are now that Fidelity Investments may follow.

What will it take to propel the BTC price to trend? Cointelegraph takes a look at some of the key topics currently under discussion among traders and analysts.

No respite for nervous bitcoin traders

The latest weekly close for BTC/USD is little changed over the past seven days.

Above $26,000, “sideways” is the name of the game for the pair, which faced several potential volatility triggers on the week.

However, the trip to new three-month lows was short-lived, and traders are now cautiously waiting for new signs in the direction, while not yet defaulting to a bearish view.

“I remain long until we show any signs of a reversal,” said Crypto Tony. Said In summary of your position on the day.

“Looking for that trend line test at $26,900, and then after a flip we have $27,300 and then up and away. Pay attention. Step by step we go.

Fellow trader Koala argued that the upside and downside are focused on a $4,000-wide corridor, with lower potential before a return to $27,000.

“A set of equal highs and equal lows. I guess we run on equal footing before equal highs.” argued,

“Demand area is where I would be interested in bidding for a run higher (invalidation is quite evident) 27k+ if demand sustains. 23k+ if not.”

For the trusted crypto, the potential range was narrower with $25,500 being the lower limit.

“It would not surprise me to see us chopping down between the red and green zones for a few more weeks. Any move above 28.5k and we will break a key market structure level, which would mean that our corrective structure is complete and we have started a new impulse move,” he said. wrote In part recent analysis with explanatory charts.

“A lower time frame below the green is fine, because (as of a previous post), my HTF bias is above 20k. That being said, I would only see us dip below the green due to some short term, fundamental/event driven volatility.” Let’s see what the next few weeks bring.”

Trader Pierre flagged the two trend lines on the 4-hour and 1-day as support and resistance levels, respectively.

Very detailed analysis shared yesterday:
– Must hold = H4 trend
– Must Break = D1 Downtrend (+same since 29.0k)
– Chopfest in the Beach pic.twitter.com/h9lhnjKImH

– Pierre – I’ll never DM you before (@Pierre_crypt0) June 19, 2023

BTC price additionally circled the classic 200-week moving average (MA) to start the week, standing at $26,600, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and trading view,

bookies in limelight

On-chain analysis offers a clear view of support where BTC price could fall should it retrace to the downside.

For analytics firm Glassnode, recent price action focuses on a key breakeven point for bitcoin’s more speculative investor cohort.

Dubbed “short-term holders (STHs),” these wallets correspond to entities that have held coins for 155 days or less.

The total cost basis (CB) for these entities – the price at which they bought the coins within that 155-day window – currently sits at $26,400, which roughly matches the 200-week MA.

“Recent volatility in bitcoin price action has been set up around the short-term holder cost-basis of $26.4K,” said Glassnode. argued in a Twitter post over the weekend.

“This suggests that the STH-CB remains an important level in determining both the direction and speed of the local trend.”

Below $26,400, then, STH begins to suffer unrealized losses on its investment, as shown by the accompanying chart.

Glassnode previously flagged the importance of STH-CB, it’s equivalent for 155-day+ investors as well as those known as long-term holders (LTHs), specifically on the exchange FTX in November 2022. Became a source of interest after the recession.

Macro cools down after intense week

With United States markets closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on June 19th, macro catalysts for the crypto markets await at the end of the week.

While not as numerous or significant as last week’s set, these still have the potential to spark some surprising volatility.

The Federal Reserve is among them, with Chairman Jerome Powell due to testify before Congress in two days from June 21.

Following the Fed’s recent decision to pause interest rate hikes but leave the door open to resume them later, the market will be anxiously analyzing Powell’s language for signs what might happen next.

To end the week, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data will be released on June 22.

Meanwhile, among market participants, bitcoin’s correlation to traditional risk assets is equally focused as it is on how macro triggers affect them.

“$BTC has not only lost positive correlation with SPX & NDX, but we have also lost inverse corr w/DXY,” trader Josh Olskiewicz noted Let’s refer to the interaction of Bitcoin with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the US Dollar Index, respectively, over the past week.

ReliableCrypto suggested that the recent disparity between BTC and SPX performance – sideways versus what various sources have called a “bull market rally” – may yet be resolved in favor of the bulls.

been seeing quite a few comments lately on the “weakness” of $BTC vs traditional market $ spx And that’s how bad it is for crypto.

Don’t mistake consolidation for weakness.

Like a student who gets a good night’s sleep before a big exam- the more rested we are before the big day, the better off we are… pic.twitter.com/FoCrvOskD1

– CredibleCrypto (@CredibleCrypto) June 18, 2023

Cointelegraph has frequently reported on the ups and downs of bitcoin’s macro correlations in recent years. A notable theme after 2020 has been strength during and against periods of Fed liquidity injections.

GBTC Gets BlackRock Boost

Bitcoin itself may offer little inspiration, but one of its biggest investment vehicles is experiencing a resurgence of its own.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has begun a new attempt to reduce its massive discount compared to the BTC spot price.

GBTC has traded at this discount – which is actually a negative premium – to bitcoin’s 2021 all-time high. Since then, it has reached -50%.

Last week’s announcement of the filing of a bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) by BlackRock prompted a change in mood, and as of June 17, the premium was decreased to -36.6%,

As Cointelegraph reported, the change comes despite debate over the actual status of BlackRock’s offering, with some claiming it will not be a spot ETF, which is banned in the US at all.

Furthermore, GBTC’s recent performance remains impressive – placing it within striking distance of a new 2023 high for a 36.6% premium.

Leaving major client ARK Invest to respond, buyers are also making themselves known. ARK currently owns Over 5.3 Million GBTC Shares,

This week, meanwhile, fresh speculation about an ETF offering centered on asset manager Fidelity Investments, whose details are still forthcoming.

“I was long GBTC before, but this makes me more convinced that this was the right move,” said investor Mike Alfred. reacted,

Market optimism sees repeated tests

Crypto market sentiment spiked last week due to the combined effect of US legal action against exchanges and changes in macroeconomic policy.

Related: Bitcoin Bulls Looking to Re-Establish Control – Will BNB, LTC, OKB and QNT Follow?

have a look at crypto fear and greed index Shows how recent events have taken their toll – June 15 saw the lowest score since mid-March.

While this suggests a more “fearful” climate than at any time since then, fear and greed remain surprisingly constant. Those lows came in at 41/100—barely “fearful”—and later returned to the stable “neutral” range.

As of June 19, the index measures 47/100.

Continuing, research firm Sentiment additionally cited the BlackRock ETF story as potential fuel for the markets — especially since some of the reactions were hostile.

For Sentiment, “the more negativity around this story, the stronger the potential for continued growth” in crypto markets. Explained Last week.

Magazine: Gary Gensler’s job at risk, BlackRock’s first bitcoin ETF and other news: Hodler’s Digest, June 11-17

This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.