Pakistan Power Tusle: Can Imran Khan win the power battle against Army Chief Asim Munir?

The precise May 9 attack on key military installations in Pakistan by mobs angered by Imran Khan’s inexplicable arrest at the Islamabad High Court has been a pivotal moment that may have sealed the former prime minister’s fate after his long crusade against Pakistan . Army. For the first time in Pakistan’s turbulent history, angry insurgents targeted several military institutions, symbols of ultimate power in the South Asian nation. In doing so, Khan and his supporters would have broken all established red lines. The prospect of a full-scale coup by the military aimed at removing him as a contender for power appears to be growing stronger and faster.

Reckless attacks on military symbols shown on television screens have shocked viewers around the world. Major targets included: Jinnah House, Lahore Corps Commander’s Residence Lahore

, General Headquarters (GHQ) Rawalpindi

, Pakistan Air Force Martyr’s Memorial Sargodha

, Inter-Services Intelligence Sector Headquarters in Faisalabad

, Rangers Post, Karachi

, Frontier Corps Base, Chikara

, Frontier Corps Barracks, Mardan

, Frontier Corps School, Director

, Pakistan Air Force Base in Mainsel

, Sewa Hospital, Lahore.

Other important institutions that were broken were:

, Election Commission, Regional Office, Peshawar and Lahore

, Shahbaz Sharif’s private residence in Lahore

, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) office in Lahore.

After these events and with the reputation, even the existence of the army in its present form, at risk, Army chief Asim Munir seems to be slowly gaining the upper hand in the bitter power struggle with Khan.

There are two major reasons which suggest that the balance of power is swinging in the direction of the military.

First, the process of intimidation of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leadership seems to be working. In an attempt to eliminate the leadership of PTI, most of the top leaders of the party have been arrested except Imran Khan, who is now out of prison after the intervention of Pakistan Supreme Court. His key aides including former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Fawad Chaudhry and many others are behind bars. Former human rights minister Shirin Mazari was dramatically arrested, released and arrested again.

The army and government alike have vowed to prosecute miscreants who attack military installations under the Pakistan Army Act, Official Secrets Act and other draconian laws.

To sow fear in the rank and file, Pak security forces have now started hunting for insurgents, using CCTV footage but announcing cash rewards for those who identify miscreants.

Army chief Asim Munir has also thrown his weight behind it to prevent a repeat of the May 9 incidents. On Wednesday, he warned that the armed forces would not allow incidents like May 9 to recur at any cost.

The pressure is starting to tell. President Arif Alvi, a known supporter of Khan, has started distancing himself from the former prime minister. President Arif Alvi said on Thursday that Imran Khan should openly condemn the events of May 9. In a TV interview, he also advocated action against miscreants involved in the incidents.

PTI rank is also seeing its first desertions. On Wednesday, PTI’s founding member Aamir Mahmood Kayani not only quit the party but also turned politics over the incidents of arson and sabotage on May 9.

Two PTI MPs from the Sindh Assembly – Sanjay Gangwani and Karim Bux Gabol – also announced their resignation from the party.

Second, despite his mastery of social media and television to deliver his message, Khan has found little support abroad. Most importantly, both China and the United States have remained silent except for superficial comments, while the military has started cracking down on the former PM.

Having identified Pakistan as the gateway to the Indian Ocean through Gwadar – a strategy to reduce dependence on the US-dominated Malacca Straits for its trade, it is natural that the Chinese, given their huge strategic stakes, No love will be lost for Huye Khan, who was once seen as his favourite. Hence the logic of national interest will determine their readiness to deal with anyone in power in Pakistan who can fulfill their agenda.

It is interesting that Chinese interactions with Pak Army have seen a spurt in recent times. Last month, Wang Yi, director of the Office of China’s Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, met General Munir in Beijing. According to an official Chinese readout, ‘Wang Yi said that the Pakistan Army is a staunch defender of Pakistan’s national security and stability, and also a staunch defender of the China-Pakistan ‘Ironcloud’ friendship.’

Americans will be most comfortable watching the political exit of Khan, known for his pro-Beijing leanings, given his tussle with the Chinese in Pakistan. For the Americans, dealing with a victorious army would be a blessing in disguise to protect their core interests, which include maintaining tight control over the Pakistani nuclear arsenal.

Moreover, with the military in real power, Washington has a better chance of wresting its influence in Afpak after its exit from Kabul in August 2021. Given the country’s location in South Asia, Pakistan’s geography will always fascinate Americans. At the doorstep of Central Asia and the Middle East.

Finally, if there is any hope for Imran, it is in the perceived division within the army. There have been reports of divisions within the army, led by longtime Khan favorite and now-retired Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, who was once the ISI chief. But it’s highly unlikely that a critical mass is achieved that would allow an army to be entrenched, triggering civil war-like situations.

While it appears to have been painted over, Khan’s ability to amass road power, which is likely to decline in the event of a full-scale confrontation with the army, cannot be taken away. It is not far-fetched to impose a state of emergency in Pakistan in anticipation of such an event. Responding to a question from a television channel after the May 9 vandalism, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said: ‘If the situation continues like this, Emergency is a constitutional option, there is no possibility of martial law in the country’ ‘

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