South Korea-Japan rapprochement sets off alarm bells in Beijing

South Korea and Japan’s deepening defense cooperation is raising alarm bells in China as the US seeks to unite its East Asian allies amid rising regional tensions.

Tokyo and Seoul this month sealed an agreement to share real-time information on North Korean missile launches with the US at the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore.

The announcement, which followed a diplomatic breakthrough between Seoul and Tokyo this year, risks stoking anger in Beijing, which has discouraged South Korea from pursuing closer economic and defense ties with the US and Japan – a longstanding effort that now falters. appears to have happened.

Jaewoo Chu, head of the China Center at the Korea Research Institute, said: “Because of its internal divisions over the North Korea issue and its historical problems with Japan, China has long viewed South Korea as the weakest link in the US alliance in Asia. ” For the National Security Think-Tank.

“But now, it could see Seoul further and further away from Beijing and closer and closer to Tokyo and Washington,” Chu said. “From the Chinese point of view, the problem is starting to get out of control.”

South Korea has traditionally taken a conciliatory approach toward China, its largest trading partner and a powerful security stakeholder in the divided Korean Peninsula.

But ties have soured since 2016, when Beijing imposed an informal economic blockade on South Korean consumer goods companies after Seoul acquired a US-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system. .

In 2017, South Korea’s leftist President Moon Jae-in offered a series of assurances known as the “three nos”. Seoul pledged not to add new batteries to the THAAD system, not participate in the US missile defense network, and not join the trilateral military alliance with the US and Japan.

Jingdong Yuan, associate professor at the University of Sydney, said the “three nos” encouraged Beijing to apply more pressure. “When you show your humility, you appear weak and China will double down.”

Now, Seoul is hitting back under conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was elected last year promising greater “strategic clarity” on China.

Yoon, whose administration has made it clear that it does not consider itself bound by Moon’s “three nos” policy, sparked outrage in Beijing in April when he criticized China’s “attempts to change the status quo by force” on Taiwan. accused of stress.

Yoon’s comments raised Chinese concerns about a diplomatic breakthrough between South Korea and Japan. Last month, Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced a series of measures to ease a trade dispute stemming from Japanese wartime forced labor, hailing a “new era” in bilateral ties.

Yoon has also raised the possibility of Japan joining a new US-South Korea nuclear planning initiative.

While that prospect has been downplayed by South Korean officials, experts said it signals an uptick in defense cooperation involving the US and two of its most important Asian allies.

Shin Seong-ho, professor of international security at Seoul National, said, “China has always understood that South Korea is a close ally of the US and Beijing does not mind this, as long as the alliance is focused entirely on the Korean Peninsula. ” university.

“The problem is when the focus of the coalition seems to have shifted to a wider area,” he said. “South Korea is drawing closer to Japan at a time when Japan is becoming more aggressive on China, and so naturally China sees it as a threat.”

Sheen said China’s aggressive response to South Korea’s THAAD deployment in 2016 limited its current options.

Sheen said, “They went on after Thad, and they contributed to a serious deterioration in the Korean public’s attitude toward China.” “It seems they have recognized that they cannot push Seoul too far.”

According to South Korean media reports, Chinese officials have warned their Korean counterparts that high-level diplomatic exchanges will be suspended if Seoul crosses Beijing’s red line on Taiwan and military coordination with Tokyo and Washington And cooperation on North Korea policy will be withdrawn. Seoul has denied the reports.

In particular, Beijing is concerned that in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, US military bases in South Korea could play a “similar role” to those in Japan, according to a Chinese scholar based at a large mainland university who won’t be. used to like. The name has been given because of the sensitivity of the issue.

“To be honest, the current relations between China and South Korea are not good, and are in danger of further deterioration,” Jing Haiming, China’s ambassador to South Korea, told a Korean radio program last month.

On Friday, South Korea’s foreign ministry called on Jing to complain after he warned Seoul against making “wrong decisions” on the US-China contest in a meeting with South Korea’s opposition leader.

According to a statement issued by the embassy, ​​Jing said, “Those who bet on China’s defeat will definitely regret it.” In response, members of South Korea’s ruling party complained that China regarded South Korea as a “vassal state”.

Chu said subtle methods are likely to be used to apply pressure on Beijing. South Korean tech giant Naver has suffered unexplained severe service disruptions in China in recent weeks.

Chu said, “With Never, the Chinese are sending a veiled threat that actions are being taken against the Korean tech and entertainment sectors.”

Shin said tensions between Beijing and Seoul over the growing nuclear threat from North Korea would worsen the diplomatic impasse.

China has repeatedly blocked US-led UN Security Council resolutions condemning Pyongyang’s ballistic missile programme, most recently after a failed military spy satellite launch.

“China wants South Korea to know that if Seoul challenges its core interests in the Taiwan Strait, Beijing will do the same on the Korean Peninsula,” Xin said. “The result is a very worrying cycle.”