Thailand’s pro-democracy opposition wins challenge to military

Thailand’s pro-democracy opposition parties have won a landslide victory in general elections, as voters rebuked the military in a closely watched contest that could trigger the country’s first power transfer in a decade.

Based on preliminary results from the Election Commission, the Progressive Move Forward Party and the Phu Thai Party together are projected to win about 290 seats in Thailand’s 500-seat lower house.

Pita Limjaroenraat, the Harvard- and MIT-educated leader of Move Forward, wrote on Twitter on Sunday that he was “ready” to be prime minister. “We believe that the Thailand we love can only get better. Change is possible.”

He said he hoped his party, led by Paetongtaran Shinawatra, the billionaire telecoms tycoon and youngest daughter of populist former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, would begin coalition talks with Phiu Thai. His elected government was overthrown in a military coup in 2006.

But after a decade of coups, crackdowns and political upheaval, it is unclear whether an opposition party will be able to lead the next government. Under parliamentary rules written by the army after a coup in 2014, an upper house filled with pro-army appointees stands to block an opposition prime minister.

Thai people vote for constituency MPs as well as a party, which is then allocated additional seats proportionally. Move Forward has 113 constituencies, compared to Phieu Thai’s 111 so far. Final results may not be available for weeks.

Move Forward’s success in its second nationwide poll reflects a backlash against Thailand’s deeply conservative royal-military establishment as well as the party’s popularity among urban and youth voters following anti-monarchy protests in 2020. In the capital Bangkok, it won 31 out of 32 seats.

“The party’s supporters grew up in a time of political polarization marked by protests, coups and crackdowns,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a research fellow at the Singapore-based Issas-Yusuf Ishak Institute.

Pheu Thai, which has won every election since 2001, is popular in the country’s rural northeast, where Thaksin’s anti-poverty policies are fondly remembered.

The military-aligned parties suffered a comprehensive defeat with the United Thai Nation Party, a vehicle for current Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, receiving only 9 percent of the vote for 23 constituencies.

The ruling Palang Prakarath party, which is led by Prayuth’s deputy and longtime mentor Prawit Wongsuwan, was up 10 percent for 39 seats, following a dispute within the government.

Prayuth, a former military chief who seized power in 2014 by ousting Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra, has been condemned by human rights groups for suppressing civil liberties and crushing the 2020 protests. On Sunday, he said he “respected democracy and elections”.

The vigorous performance of the opposition may not translate into control of the government. The military holds a significant advantage under Thailand’s 2017 constitution, which allows a 500-seat elected lower house as well as a 250-member junta-appointed Senate to vote on a prime minister. This creates a threshold of at least 376 seats for the opposition to secure its own prime minister and form a government.

A potential kingmaker is the regional Bhumjaithai party, which came third with 12.7 percent of the vote, enough for 68 constituencies.

There is also the risk of military takeover or judicial intervention to disqualify opposition candidates.

Move Forward’s father is already the subject of a complaint with the Electoral Commission over his ownership of shares in the broadcaster. The leader of the first incarnation of Move Forward was banned from politics for 10 years for a similar violation.

put forward proposals to reform the military and monarchy, including abolishing conscription and revising the harsh lesser glory Law can also prove to be a stumbling block in alliance talks.

Its agenda is seen as “an ever-present threat”, according to Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute for Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

“It will be very difficult to reform the old system without some kind of confrontation,” he said.