the putin system is crumbling

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The images that define Volodymyr Zelensky as a leader were filmed on February 25 last year. As Russian troops closed in on Kiev, the Ukrainian president along with his closest aides walked the streets of the city and reassured citizens that: “We are all here, defending our freedom and our country.”

Now compare this to the performance of Vladimir Putin, as the Wagner militia briefly threatened to march on Moscow over the weekend. Sitting comfortably in his office, the Russian president vented his anger about “betrayal” and “treason”. Then he disappeared. Rumors abound that Putin has left Moscow. Kremlin officials later insisted that he was acting in his office.

The contrast between Zelensky and Putin was surprising. On the one hand, the display of courage, brotherhood and national unity. On the other hand, fear, isolation and division.

The Prigozhin rebellion is over for the time being. But it would be absurd to believe that the situation in Russia can be normal. The reality is that there is no normal thing to go back to. The rebellion happened because the Putin project is falling apart. That process is likely to accelerate after the events of this weekend.

It is now clear that Putin faces a two-front struggle for survival. There is a war going on in Ukraine. And there is internal stability of his rule. Both the fronts are connected. Further setbacks in Ukraine would inevitably worsen his position at home – and vice versa.

The events of last weekend cannot go untold or unseen. Russians have now heard Yevgeny Prigozhin accusing Putin of waging war in Ukraine based on lies about Ukraine and NATO aggression. He heard Putin saying that Prigozhin and his comrades would face “inevitable punishment” and “answer to the law and our people”.

He then saw the Russian leader agree to drop all charges against Prigozhin in exchange for a promise to stop his march on Moscow. He noted that Putin is counting on the mediation of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko – the same Lukashenko whom Putin has treated with blatant disdain in the past. Most of all, the Russians have seen their powerful army and its fearful security services unable to stop a rebel militia from marching on Moscow after capturing Rostov, a city of more than 1 million people.

Wagner’s troops were the most effective fighters Russia deployed to Ukraine. But the militia, which has thousands of members, will now be disbanded and its leader sent into exile. In theory, any Wagnerite who took part in the Weekend Uprising would not be allowed to serve in the Russian Armed Forces. But to expect a battle-hardened, mutinous militia to easily blend into Russian society seems unrealistic. Inducting former Wagnerites into the Russian army also sounds like a dangerous operation.

Russian forces in Ukraine will also wonder how long domestic support for the war effort will last. Prigozhin’s mutiny and scathing criticism of the causes of the war would be heard on the battlefield, and would certainly affect morale. As John Kerry (who later became US Secretary of State) said when the Vietnam War was coming to an end: “How can you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?”

As for the Ukrainians, they know that the open disorganization in the Russian ranks provides them with an opportunity. They may choose this moment to commit reserve troops for a counter-attack. He will also be given new arguments to present to his friends in the West at next month’s NATO summit.

Those allies who quietly suggested that Russia cannot be defeated – and that Ukraine must negotiate with Putin – will now be silenced. In contrast, Putin’s international supporters will hold second and third views and are now actively considering post-Putin scenarios for Russia.

Despite all this, it would be a mistake to believe that anything is inevitable – including Putin’s downfall. His friend Recep Tayyip Erdoğan succeeded in an attempted coup d’état in Turkey in 2016 and is still in power.

But Putin’s chances of survival are clearly getting worse. Prigozhin remains a threat. He’s a real thug – a former criminal, who’s comfortable on the front lines. The contrast with Putin, a former bureaucrat who is fond of being photographed bare-chested but fearful of contagion, is becoming a little clearer.

It seems highly unlikely that Prigozhin would opt for a quiet retirement in the Belarussian countryside. He is likely to remain a vocal and dangerous critic of the Russian military leadership and Putin himself.

Putin may be tempted to throw some of the military leaders targeted by Prigozhin overboard. Generals Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov have clearly failed in Ukraine and on the home front. They can be convenient scapegoats. But getting rid of him could make the Russian leader appear even weaker by justifying Prigozhin.

The search for a scapegoat could also fracture the Russian elite. One reason Putin has lived so long is that many of Russia’s most powerful people know their fortunes are tied to him and the system he built.

At one time, siding with Putin seemed a safe option for the country’s elite. But, as the system crumbles, those calculations are changing.

gideon.rachman@ft.com