Turkey faces runoff presidential election with Tayyip Erdogan leading

Ankara: President Tayyip Erdogan led his opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Sunday’s election, but Turkey proceeded to a runoff vote after falling short of an absolute majority to extend his 20-year rule of the NATO-member country. Neither Erdogan nor Kilikdaroglu cleared the 50% threshold needed to avoid a second round scheduled for 28 May, in an election seen as a verdict on Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian path.

The presidential vote will decide not only who will lead Turkey, but also whether it returns to a more secular, democratic path, how it handles its dire cost of life crisis, and whether Russia, the Middle East and Will manage key relations with the West.

Kilicdaroglu, who said he would prevail in the runoff, urged his supporters to be patient and accused Erdogan’s party of interfering with vote counting and the reporting of results.

But Erdogan had fared better than in pre-poll polls, and appeared confident and in a combative mood as he addressed his supporters.

“We are already ahead of our nearest rival by 2.6 million votes. We expect this figure to increase with the official results,” Erdogan said.

According to state-owned news agency Anadolu, with nearly 97% of ballot boxes counted, Erdogan led with 49.39% of the vote and Kilikdaroglu had 44.92%. Turkey’s Higher Election Board gave Erdogan 49.49% of the vote, with 91.93% of ballot boxes counted.

Thousands of Erdogan voters gathered at the party’s headquarters in Ankara, blaring party songs over loudspeakers and waving flags. Some danced on the street.

“We know it’s not a celebration yet, but we hope to celebrate his victory soon,” said 39-year-old Yalcin Yıldırım, a garment factory owner. Erdogan is the best leader we have for our country and we wish him love.”

Erdogan has the edge

The results reflect deep polarization in a country at a political crossroad. The vote was set to give Erdogan’s ruling coalition a majority in parliament, giving him a potential edge in the runoff.

Opinion polls before the election pointed to a very tight race, but gave a slight lead to Kilikdaroglu, the head of a six-party coalition. Two polls on Friday showed him above the 50% threshold.

The country of 85 million people – already battling rising inflation – now faces two weeks of uncertainty that could roil markets, with analysts expecting volatility in the local currency and stock market.

Hakan Akbas, Managing Director of Strategic Advisory, said, “The next two weeks will probably be the longest two weeks in Turkey’s history and a lot will happen. I expect a significant crash on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and a lot of currency volatility.” Services, Consulting.

“Erdogan will have an advantage in the second vote because his coalition has fared better than the opposition coalition,” he said.

Sinan Ogan, the third nationalist presidential candidate, received 5.3% of the vote. Analysts said he could be the “kingmaker” in the runoff, depending on which candidate he supports.

The opposition said Erdogan’s party was delaying the full results by filing an objection while officials were publishing the results in an order that artificially inflated Erdogan’s numbers.

Kilicdaroglu said in an earlier appearance that Erdogan’s party was “destroying Turkey’s will” by objecting to counting more than 1,000 ballot boxes. He said, “You can’t stop what happens with objections. We’re never going to let this become a set thing.”

But at the opposition headquarters, where Kılıkdaroğlu was expected to win, the atmosphere turned somber as the votes were counted. His supporters waved flags of Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and played drums.

key Putin aide

The election of Turkey’s next president is one of the most consequential political decisions in the country’s 100-year history and will resonate well beyond Turkey’s borders.

A victory for Erdogan, one of President Vladimir Putin’s most important allies, would delight the Kremlin but upset the Biden administration as well as several European and Middle Eastern leaders who have had poor relations with Erdogan.

Turkey’s longest-serving leader has transformed the NATO member and Europe’s second-largest country into a global player, modernizing it through megaprojects such as new bridges and airports and seeking to meet demands from foreign states. The arms industry has been created.

But his hawkish economic policy of low interest rates, which compounded the rising cost of living crisis and inflation, earned him the wrath of voters. His government’s slow response to the devastating earthquake in southeast Turkey earlier this year that killed 50,000 people added to voters’ frustration.

parliamentary majority

Kilicdaroglu has vowed to revive democracy after years of state repression, return to conservative economic policies, reinvigorate institutions that have lost autonomy under Erdogan, and rebuild weak ties with the West.

If the opposition prevails, thousands of political prisoners and activists could be released.

Critics fear that if Erdogan wins another term, he will rule more autocratic than before. The 69-year-old president, a veteran of a dozen election victories, says he respects democracy.

In the parliamentary vote, Erdogan’s coalition of Islamist origins AKP, nationalist MHP and others fared better than expected and headed for a majority.