Ukraine feels the pressure of time and rising expectations

Ukraine just had a diplomatic victory. Now the pressure is on the country to follow up on a military victory.

After the fanfare of the G7 summit in Hiroshima, attention will turn back to the brutal realities of the war in eastern Ukraine. The President of Ukraine was greatly encouraged by the diplomatic and military assistance given to Volodymyr Zelensky in the G7. But the danger is that it could be remembered as the high watermark of international support for Ukraine.

Ukrainians know that the best way to retain Western support is to make dramatic progress on the battlefield. But Russian claims that they have finally taken control of the largely destroyed city of Bakhmut underscore how challenging this could be.

There was no indication of this international pressure on Zelensky official notification Released by G7. The group used the familiar formula that they would return Ukraine “as long as it takes”. But the unofficial message is a bit more complicated: “As long as it takes. But it would be better if it did not take much time.

This sense of urgency does not reflect a lack of sympathy for Ukraine among major Western governments. Instead there is a concern that, if Kiev’s much-anticipated counter-offensive fails to turn the tide on the battlefield, the country’s supporters will find it difficult to maintain current levels of political, financial and logistical support.

The growing pressure on Ukraine is closely linked to the 2024 US presidential election. The emergence of Donald Trump as Republican leader has fueled fears that the next US president will radically change policy on Ukraine. Trump has to rant that he could end the war in a day, a different message from “As Long as It Takes”.

Even a presidential election campaign dominated by Trump is likely to markedly undermine America’s bipartisan consensus on Ukraine. All manner of arguments against supporting Kiev – from the cost of the war to the dangers of escalation – will be aired. opinion polls in America already show some Downfall in support of Ukraine.

All of this gives Vladimir Putin reason to hope that, if he can keep Russia fighting for another 18 months, the Trumpist cavalry may be on the horizon. The Kremlin is already flirting fiercely with the former US President and his supporters. Russia’s Latest List of Americans Sanctioned Involved People who have nothing to do with Ukraine but who are on Trump’s list of unofficial domestic enemies — like Brad Raffensperger, the official who opposed Trump’s “finding” some more votes in Georgia.

Given that the US provides most of the military aid to Ukraine, the attitude in Washington is significant. Changes in the political climate in America will inevitably happen in Europe as well. Energy market disruption due to war has already affected European countries spend About €800bn on energy subsidies. Economic discontent could translate into growing support for far-right and far-left populist parties sympathetic to Russia.

Then there is the question of arms supply. Both the US and Europe have nearly emptied their inventories of relevant munitions, such as artillery shells, in their efforts to keep up with Ukraine’s supply. Without converting to a wartime economy, Western arms factories cannot keep up with the pace of war. The fighting is so intense that, as one Western politician puts it, “Ukrainians are consuming in hours what we produce in weeks”. Western national security officials have had to moonlight as arms dealers – circling around global capitals from Seoul to Islamabad – to send fresh supplies of missiles and other weapons to the front.

The US and Europeans believe that their efforts have worked and that Ukraine now has enough weapons to launch a serious offensive. But the armory of the West is now looking quite bare. It won’t be fully recovered until 2024 – although by then the Ukrainians will be able to deploy the fighters they were promised last week.

Ukraine’s current counter-offensive is likely to begin quietly with a series of probing missions that will look for weaknesses in the Russian line. But the extent of those Russian vulnerabilities remains the great “known unknown” of the war.

Some Western officials, who have worked closely with Kiev, believe the Ukrainians have a good chance of breaching Russian borders and threatening Crimea. Others warn that the Russians are dug in – and inexperienced Ukrainian troops may struggle to gain ground. Pessimists fear that, if the war remains a stalemate next year, Putin may be able to mobilize hundreds of thousands of new troops for the next phase of the conflict. Although the Ukrainians have higher morale and better tactics, Russia has a larger pool of potential troops.

But even if Ukraine fails to make a breakthrough and Western support for Kiev begins to falter, this will not be the end of the matter. Ukrainian officials pointed out that unlike their Western backers, they would never have the luxury of walking away from the conflict. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba likes to quote a saying attributed to John Lennon: “Everything will be fine in the end. If it’s not okay, it’s not the end.”

gideon.rachman@ft.com