Ukraine needs long-term security guarantees

Ukraine’s counter-aggression, which is showing signs of progress, will be crucial in shaping the outcome of its conflict with Russia. Even now, however, officials in Kiev and allied capitals are turning their attention to Ukraine’s long-term place in the institutions that underpin Europe’s peace and prosperity. President Volodymyr Zelensky is pushing for Kiev to join NATO and a road map for security guarantees at an alliance summit in Vilnius next month. In a positive change, French President Emmanuel Macron signaled broad support last week. His example should persuade others, including the US, to follow suit.

NATO announced at its 2008 Bucharest summit that Ukraine and Georgia would become members, but Kiev’s membership bid failed to move forward for years. The resulting ambiguity both created a pretext for Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine last year – claiming he was responding to the expansion of a hostile alliance – while falsely persuading him that he would face little Western resistance. .

Immediate entry into NATO while Ukraine is still at war with Russia is unrealistic. Ideally, the alliance in Vilnius would provide Kiev with a concrete timetable, or “membership action plan”, to lead to accession if the conflict ends. But, at the very least, the summit should demonstrate a firm belief and commitment that Ukraine should join NATO, and clearly put it on the path to preparing for accession. The huge NATO-supplied Ukrainian military that is taking shape is an additional argument for eventual membership.

Unlike 2008 when the US championed Ukraine toward NATO, the Biden administration is cautious. Some European diplomats are optimistic that its objections – and any reservations in Berlin – may subside, as they have towards providing more lethal weapons to Kiev. Intense diplomacy is needed to secure a deal before Vilnius. Undoubtedly, this will make the Kremlin more hostile. Yet Putin has long insisted that Ukraine’s membership was a foregone conclusion. NATO must be clear that Russia’s own aggression has made this outcome inevitable.

Members in Vilnius are unlikely to do more than begin discussions on possible security guarantees for Ukraine. But work on these should be part of preparations to embrace Kiev – and to bridge any gap between the end of the conflict and Ukraine being ready to join the coalition. While they could not include pledges from allies to go to war on their side should Ukraine be invaded again, they would include commitments to provide Kiev with weapons, technology and aid to stop the threat. Macron suggested that Ukraine needed “something in between the security provided to Israel – which the US is committed to providing”.qualitative military edge“Against enemies – and full membership of NATO.

Credible guarantees capable of deterring Russia in the future could reduce the need for Putin’s decisive defeat, should Kiev fall short of regaining all territory seized by Russia since 2014, including Crimea. They will provide the confidence and stability needed for the rest of Ukraine to rebuild and recover and attract significant foreign investment.

Ukrainians have demonstrated extraordinary fortitude in defending their homeland. They deserve to know that they will be fully included in the European “family” once hostilities end – and that allies will do whatever is necessary to prevent Moscow from threatening its borders again. The EU has made Kiev an official candidate for membership, and is working on a four-year funding plan, estimated to cost ten billion euros, that will keep its support for Ukraine at a more predictable long-term level. Parallel steps are now needed on the military and security front.