Rising tensions over the G7 and Micron show the limits of the US-China reset

Joe Biden’s prediction of an imminent “thaw” in US-China relations on Sunday was a stark reminder of just how tense Washington and Beijing still are.

Within hours of the US president’s words at the end of the G7 summit in Japan, China ordered its infrastructure companies to stop buying from US chipmaker Micron.

It underscored the huge challenges of stabilizing US-China relations at the end of a summit in Hiroshima, where Biden and other leaders of advanced economies harshly criticized Beijing – while also acknowledging the need to cooperate with China. Did.

The communique from the summit drew an angry reaction from Beijing, which called on Japan’s ambassador to China to protest.

Chinese foreign policy experts said the G7 statement – which also showed the success of the US and Japan in persuading European countries such as Germany and France to take a stronger stand against China – would further complicate relations.

“The G7 communiqué points the finger at China in every dimension,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. Wu said, “It will make China even less willing to cooperate with the G7 to resolve issues of concern to them”.

For months, Washington and Beijing have struggled to adhere to an agreement reached between Biden and President Xi Jinping at a meeting in Indonesia in November to establish a “floor” for ties. Chinese spy balloons detected in the US this year – which Biden referred to as a “silly balloon” on Sunday – prompted Washington to cancel a visit to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan insisted on Saturday that the G7 findings would not affect efforts to reschedule Blinken’s trip or agree on possible visits by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.

China experts in the US also said that China’s criticism of the G7 would go down badly in Beijing, but it would not derail all efforts to resume high-level engagement.

Dennis Wilder, a former CIA China analyst and White House official, said he believed Xi would still proceed with “strategic efforts” to achieve those discussed with Biden. “It needs a stable international environment in which the US and its allies do not isolate their economies from China or take measures to push Taiwan towards independence,” Wilder said.

One possible focus is the economy. The Chinese appear to want to engage in an effort to stabilize US-China relations. , , partly because of concerns about the economy,” said Bonnie Glaser, China specialist at the German Marshall Fund. But he cautioned that China was “cherry picking” it to meet with officials.

There will be an early test this week when China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao is set to become the first senior Chinese official to visit Washington since 2020. Wang is scheduled to meet US Trade Representative Catherine Tai at the APEC trade meeting in Detroit and then travel to Washington. to meet Raimondo.

In a positive sign from China, its nationalist Global Times tabloid said over the weekend that Wang’s meetings showed both sides “recognized the importance of economic and trade ties”.

A US official said that Wang’s visit was “little ’em” motion as we all find our feet”.

While Wang’s meetings in the US and possible visits to China by Yellen and Raimondo could help ease tensions over trade, experts said the faultline in the two countries’ ties now lies on technology-related national security issues, economic pressures and tensions. were more focused. over Taiwan.

A former US official warned that the latest tensions over Micron – which Beijing’s regulator calls security risks – would have serious implications for US-China relations.

“The Chinese leadership must recognize that this action will make it impossible to stabilize relations, and the effort to kill Micron will spur stronger and more far-reaching action from the Biden administration and the US Congress,” he said.

While the US and China seek to improve ties – even if they have not been able to agree on terms for top-level meetings and a possible call between Biden and Xi – some US and China experts question whether high-level engagement The impact will be enormous given that Washington and Beijing are determined to uphold policies that the other opposes.

Wu said he did not have “high hopes” for much progress, adding that the 2024 US presidential election and Biden’s candidacy meant politics would push Washington’s agenda on China.

Zhao Hai, dean of the National Institute for Global Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences think-tank, a government think-tank, said there was a serious lack of trust. He pointed to the example of the US targeting China with export controls shortly after Biden and Xi met in Indonesia.

Zhao said, “Even if we continue to communicate, there is no fruit, no result.” “Now it’s our turn to see the results.”